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Repeated Experiment: I bought $1k of Top10 Cryptos on 01/01/2019. Result? UP +43%

Repeated Experiment: I bought $1k of Top10 Cryptos on 01/01/2019. Result? UP +43%

EXPERIMENT - Tracking 2019 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies – Month Seventeen - UP 43%

Full blog post with all the tables here.

tl;dr - This is the 17th monthly update on the 2019 Top Ten Experiment. Ethereum up the most in May, plus got a shout out from J.K. Rowling, so it obviously won the month. Overall, BTC in first place since January 2019, BSV in second place. Half of the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio is up at least +50%. XRP is worst performing. Total $3k (3 x $1k) investments the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten are up +3.5%, but similar approach with US stocks market would have yielded +10%.

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on the 1st of January 2018. The result? The 2018 Top Ten portfolio ended 2018 down 85%, my $1000 worth only $150. I then repeated the experiment on the 1st of January 2019 with the new 2019 Top Ten cryptos, then again in 2020.
Think of the Top Ten Experiments as a lazy man’s Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), less technical, but hopefully still a proxy for the market as a whole – or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018, 2019, and 2020 crypto space. I am trying to keep this project simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet. I try not to take sides or analyze, but rather attempt to report in a detached manner letting the numbers speak for themselves.
This is not investing advice – as a matter of fact, the vast majority of the reports will show that the Top Ten approach under performs other strategies. This experiment is designed to be documentary in nature, describing a specific period in cryptocurrency history.

The Rules:

Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2018, 2019, and 2020. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly.

Month Seventeen – UP 43%

Unlike April’s all green month, May was more mixed. That said, the gains outweighed the losses this month in the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio.

Question of the month:

In May, Reddit launched two Ethereum-based tokens on the Cryptocurrency and FortNiteBR subreddits. What are the Cryptocurrency token called?
A) Moons
B) Bricks
C) Satoshis
D) Cryptos
Scroll down for the answer.

Ranking and March Winners and Losers

Besides Stellar (down two spots to #13) and Tron (down one from #16 to #17) every other crypto was locked in place.
Speaking of Stellar and Tron, they are still the only two cryptos to have dropped out of the 2019 Top Ten since January 1st, 2019. They have been replaced by Binance Coin and Tezos.
May WinnersEthereum ended the month up +16% and got a shout out from J.K. Rowling, so it obviously won May. BTC came in a close second this month, up +14%.
May Losers – A tight battle for the basement this month with BSV (down -3.9%) edging out XRP (down -3.7%) for the bottom spot.
For nerds those keeping score, here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and loses during the first seventeen months of the 2019 Top Ten Experiment: Tether is still in the lead with five monthly victories followed by BSV in second place with three. BSV also holds the most monthly losses, finishing last in six out of seventeen months.

Overall update – BTC increases lead over second place BSV, XRP still worst performing

Ahead until just last month, BSV lost a lot of ground to BTC in May. Bitcoin is now up +168% since January 2019 compared to BSV‘s +116% gain. That initial $100 investment in BTC? Now worth $273.
As was the case last month, 50% of the 2019 Top Ten cryptos are up at least +50% since the beginning of the experiment.
At the other end, XRP continues to struggle, now down -41% since January 2019.

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

The overall crypto market added about $35B in May, and is now near August 2019 levels. It is up +123% since January 2019.

Bitcoin dominance:

BitDom was steady again in May. This marks the third straight month it’s been stuck at around 65% For context, the range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2019 has been between 50%-70%.

Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2019:

The 2019 Top Ten Portfolio gained about $65 in May. After the initial $1000 investment, the 2019 group of cryptos is worth $1,431, up about +43%.
Here’s a look at the ROI over the life of the first seventeen months of the experiment, month by month:
Almost completely green for the 2019 Top Ten, a welcome change from the all red table you’ll see in the 2018 experiment. As you can see, every month except the first month ends in positive territory. At the lowest point, the 2019 Top Ten portfolio was down -9%, at the highest point, up +114% (May 2019).
How does the 2019 Top Ten Experiment compare to the parallel projects?
Taking the three portfolios together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line:
After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios are worth $3,104‬.
That’s up about +3.5% for the combined portfolios. Better than a few months ago (aka the zombie apocalypse) where it was down -24%, but not yet back at January (+13%) or February (+6%) levels.
How does this compare to traditional markets?

How does the 2019 Top Ten portfolio compare US stock market?

Excellent question, I’m glad you asked. And you’re in luck, I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. Despite the fact that the world seemed to be on fire, May 2020 saw the continued rebound of the stock market. It’s now up +22% since the start of the 2019 Experiment.
As a reminder (or just scroll up) the 2019 Top Ten portfolio is returning +43% over the same time period, which is about double the S&P 500.
The initial $1k investment I put into crypto would be worth $1,220 had it been redirected to the S&P 500 in January 2019.
But what if I took the same world’s-slowest-dollar-cost-averaging/$1,000-per-year-in-January approach with the S&P 500? It would yield the following:
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018: +$140
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019: +$220
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020: -$50
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P:
After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,310.
That $3,310 is up over+10% since January 2018, compared to the $3,104 value (+3.5%) of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios.
That’s about a 7% difference in favor of the stock market. Last month, there was only a 3% difference, the month before, the gap was 13% (all in favor of the stock market).

Implications/Observations:

The difference between the 2019 Top Ten crypto group and the overall crypto market is stark. Since January 2019, the overall market has gained +123% compared to the 2019 Top Ten crypto group which has gained +43%. This is an absolutely massive 80% gap. A +43% return is solid compared to the stock market, but it also implies that an investor would have done much better picking different cryptos or investing in the entire market instead of focusing only on the Top Ten. There are a few examples of this approach outperforming the overall market in this 2019 Top Ten Crypto Experiment, but the cases are few and far between.
The 2018 Top Ten portfolio, on the other hand, has never outperformed the overall market, at least not in the first twenty-nine months of that Experiment.
For the most recent 2020 Top Ten group, the opposite had been true: the 2020 Top Ten had easily outperformed the overall market 100% of the time…until this month.

Conclusion:

The BTC halving event came and went in May and crypto markets shrugged. As the world continues to change because of COVID-19, what will be crypto’s place when we finally emerge on the other side?
Final word: Please take care of yourselves, your families, and your communities. Stay safe out there.
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for the original 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment and the recently launched 2020 Top Ten Experiment.

And the Answer is…

A) Moons
According CryptoCurrency, Moons represent ownership in the subreddit, “tokens on the Ethereum blockchain controlled entirely by you, and they can be freely transferred, tipped, and spent in CryptoCurrency*.*” Check out this post for more details.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2020 (April Update) - UP 42%

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2020 (April Update) - UP 42%

EXPERIMENT - Tracking 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies – Month Four - UP 42%
See the full blog post with all the nerdy tables here.
tl;dr - Tezos wins April, all coins in the green for the month. Tezos overtakes BSV for the overall lead, BTC mid-field. When taken together, all three experiments (2018 + 2019 + 2020 Top Ten Cryptos) are basically even with S&P 500 since Jan 2018. More details that you probably care about below and stay safe out there.

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on the 1st of January 2018. The result? The 2018 Top Ten portfolio ended the year down 85%, my $1000 worth only $150. I repeated the experiment on the 1st of January 2019 with the new 2019 Top Ten cryptos, then again in 2020. Think of the Top Ten Experiments as a lazy man’s Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), less technical, but hopefully still a proxy for the market as a whole – or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018, 2019, and 2020 crypto space. I am trying to keep this project simple/accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet. I try not to take sides or analyze, but rather attempt to report in a detached manner letting the numbers speak for themselves. This experiment is designed to be documentary in nature, describing a specific period in cryptocurrency history.

The Rules:

Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies in January 2018, 2019, and 2020. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly.

Month Four – UP 42%

After a very bloody March, the 2020 Top Ten have bounced back bigly (or is it big league?). March was all red, April all green. Out of the three portfolios, the 2020 Top Ten (+42%) is the best performing for the third month in a row.

Ranking and March Winners and Losers

EOS and Binance Coin switched places, but that’s it – the rest of the 2020 Top Ten were locked in place.
April WinnersTezos, up +76%, easily bested its peers. Second place goes to ETH, up +57% this month.
April Losers – The same two losers as the 2019 Top Ten group: Tether was outperformed by the rest of the cryptos. The second worst performance in April was turned in by Bitcoin Cash, up +15%.
For those keeping score, I also keep a tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and losses. After four months, Tether has two losses and Tezos has two wins.

Overall update – Tezos overtakes BSV for the lead and 100% are in positive territory.

Tezos (+121%) took the lead over from BSV (+115%) this month, a lead which BSV had held since the beginning of the year. Not counting Tether, the worst performing crypto, Bitcoin Cash, is still up +15% since January 2020.

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

The overall crypto market added about $63B in April 2020 and is now close to where it was in late February. It is up +31% since the beginning of the experiment in January 2020.

Bitcoin dominance:

Bitcoin dominance (or BitDom as I like to call it) was steady in April. As of early May, there hasn’t been significant movement either way this year.

Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2020:

The 2020 Top Ten Portfolio regained $350 in April, not quite what it lost in March. After an initial $1000 investment, the 2020 Top Ten Portfolio is now worth $1,419, up about +42%. It is the best performing Top Ten Crypto Portfolio out of the three.
Here’s the month by month ROI of the 2020 Top Ten Experiment, hopefully helpful to maintain perspective and provide an overview as we go along:
Hopefully that zombie apocalypse drop in March will just be a blip this year.
So, how does the 2020 Top Ten Experiment compare to the parallel projects?
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line:
After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios are worth $2,969‬.
That’s down about -1% for the combined portfolios.
Much better than last month (aka the zombie apocalypse) where it was down -24%. For context, the combined return in January 2020 was +13% and in February 2020 it was +6%.
So that’s the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments snapshot. Let’s take a look at how traditional markets are doing.

Comparison to S&P 500

I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. Stocks rebounded a bit in April, but are still down -12% since the beginning of the year.
Over the same time period, the 2020 Top Ten Crypto Portfolio is returning about +42%, now worth about $1,419.
The money I put into crypto in January 2020 would now be worth $880 had it been redirected to the S&P 500. That’s an almost $540 swing on an initial $1,000 investment.
And what if I took the same approach with the S&P 500 as I took during the first three years of the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments? Here are the figures:
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018: +$60
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019: +$130
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020: -$120
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P:
After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,070.
$3,070 is up about +2% since January 2018, compared to the $2,969 value (-1%) of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios.
That’s a only a 3% difference. Last month the gap was 13%.

Implications/Observations:

The crypto market as a whole is up +31% since the beginning of the year compared to the 2020 Top Ten cryptos which have gained +42%. Focusing on the Top Ten 2020 coins has now beaten the overall market four months in a row.
This is noteworthy because this hasn’t been the case very often since I started these Top Ten Experiments back in January 2018. Although there are a few examples of the Top Ten strategy outperforming the overall market in the 2019 Top Ten Experiment, it’s interesting to note at no point in the first twenty-eight months of the Top Ten 2018 Experiment has the approach of focusing on the Top Ten cryptos outperformed the overall market. Not even once.

Conclusion:

May should be interesting. The BTC Halving is only a few days away and the world continues to wage war on COVID-19. Stay tuned for how the crypto markets overall and the Top Ten Portfolios react to these events.
Final word: second waves of COVID-19 are definitely possible. Please take care of yourselves, your families, and your communities. Keep up the social distancing, wear a mask, and wash your hands. Be careful out there.
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for the original 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment and the 2019 Top Ten Experiment follow up experiment.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2019 (Year End Update)

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2019 (Year End Update)

2019 \"Index Fund\" EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies of 2019 - Year End Update - UP 2%
Full blog post with all the tables

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. I then repeated the experiment on the 1st of January 2019. Think of it as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the market as a whole - or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2019 crypto space. I am trying to keep this project simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet. I try not to take sides or analyze, but rather report and document in a detached manner letting the numbers speak for themselves.
The Rules:
Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2019. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly. Compare loosely to the 2018 Top Ten Experiment.

Month Twelve and Year End Tally – UP 2% since January 2019

After a strong October, 2019 ended with two straight bloody months, each of the 2019 Top Ten cryptos finishing in the red.
Here’s the finally tally after one year: after generous rounding, the 2019 Top Ten ended the year UP 2%. My $1,000 investment on the 1st of January 2019 is now worth $1017.
For context, this same group of cryptos was up +114% at the peak in May 2019. The worst month (and the only month in the red) was January 2019.
Additionally, the portfolio has fallen well behind the stock market as measured by the S&P 500 (see below).

Ranking and December Winners and Losers

Very little movement in December, with most of the cryptos glued to their positions. Only Stellar and Tron budged, each slipping one place to #11 and #12, respectively. 2019 has been a remarkably static year in terms of Top Ten positioning: most of the coins stuck close to their starting place. This is certainly not the case in the 2018 Top Ten Experiment where coins have fallen and fallen hard.
December WinnersTether, again. As always, when Tether is the best performer it signals a not great month for this portfolio. While not the nightmare it could have been, Tether won the majority of the months in 2019, as you can see in the chart below. Bitcoin finished in second place, down -2% in December.
December Losers – In addition to dropping out of the Top Ten, Stellar lost about one-fifth of its value followed by Tron which was down -15%.
For those keeping score, here is the 2019 year end tally of which coins had the most monthly wins and losses: Tether had twice as many wins as Bitcoin and BTCSV, which finished tied for second place. Bitcoin SV also finished the most monthly losses, finishing last in four months in 2019.

FINAL YEAR END RESULTS after tracking this group for 2019: Bitcoin far ahead, followed by Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. Stellar and Ripple at the bottom.

Let’s start with the winners: Bitcoin is up +89% and single-handedly prevented the entire 2019 Top Ten portfolio from finishing in the red (just barely). Bitcoin carved out a healthy lead in 2019: it is well ahead of second place Litecoin (+34%) and third place Bitcoin Cash (+22%).
Many others ended 2019 flat or nearly flat. BTCSV, EOS, Ethereum, and of course Tether all finished the year close to where they started.
The final three had significant losses: Tron, Ripple, and Stellar finished the year at -33%, -46%, and -61%, respectively.
2019 also saw Tron and Stellar booted out of the Top Ten, replaced by Binance Coin and Tezos.
Quite the fall from grace for Stellar, which was the champion of the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Experiment.
So there you have it. After one year, three coins in the green, four coins flat, three coins in the red.

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

Even though the year ended in a downward trend, the crypto market overall has had an undeniably positive year.
One Year (2019) Final Market Cap Figures:
  • Since January 2019 – the total market cap for crypto has increased +49%
  • Worst Month – January 2019 ($114B total crypto market cap)
  • Best Month – June 2019 ($321B total crypto market cap)
  • The last time the total market cap reached $300B: August 2019
  • The last time the total market cap reached $200B: November 2019

Bitcoin dominance:

Bitcoin dominance ticked back up in December and ends 2019 at 68%, a level not seen since September 2019. The range since the beginning of the year has been between a low of 50% in March and a high of 70% in September. The 70% figure in September also marks the Bitcoin dominance high since I started the experiment back in January 2018. The lowest level was 33% way back in February 2018.

Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2019:

After an initial $1000 investment, the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio is worth $1,017, UP about +2% in one year.
The humble +2% gain of the 2019 Top Ten portfolio is dwarfed by the overall crypto market’s +49% gain and Bitcoin’s +89% gain. As mentioned earlier, the value of this group of coins was dragged down by the four flat cryptos and the three that finished deep in the red.
  • Lowest 2019 Top Ten portfolio value: January 2019 ($915)
  • Highest 2019 Top Ten portfolio value: May 2019 ($2139)
Here’s what the 2019 Ten Ten portfolio has returned throughout the year:
The 2018 Top Ten Experiment is faring far, far worse, down -86%.
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom line: after a $2000 investment in both the 2018 and the 2019 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios are worth $1,153.
That’s down about -42%.

Implications/Observations:

Congratulations to Bitcoin which significantly outperformed the rest of the field to end the first year of the 2019 Top Ten experiment on top. Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash deserve honorable mentions as well, finishing in second and third places.
Bitcoin also came out on top after the first two years of the 2018 Top Ten Index Fund Experiment.
Unlike the 2018 Top Ten, there were examples of months in 2019 where holding this Top Ten group cryptos outperformed the overall market. This is surprising, as this has not been the case with the other group: for each of the first twenty-four months of the 2018 experiment, the strategy of solely holding the Top Ten Cryptos was a losing approach.
That said, the year end difference between a +2% gain with the Top Ten approach vs. the +67% gain for the market overall of course implies that I would have done a lot better if I’d picked different cryptos. Or just stuck with Bitcoin and its +89% gain.
In retrospect, it seems an easy/obvious choice, as choices normally do when looking backward. But by tracking the progress of these experiments monthly, I’m able to report another obvious point: crypto is a highly dynamic market. Stellar was the best performer of 2018, for example. And Litecoin looked like it was the crypto to beat for much of 2019, up +300% at the mid-year point.
I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The S&P 500 is now up +29% since the beginning of 2019. My initial $1k investment into crypto would have yielded about +$290 had it been redirected to the S&P.

Conclusion:

Although the 2019 Top Ten ended the December fairly flat, the overall market and Bitcoin in particular had a very strong year. The year is staring off with a bang, the market is up, the halvening approaches, and current sentiment towards crypto seems positive – 2020 will no doubt be another interesting year for cryptocurrency.

Thanks and Future of the Experiments:

Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment(s). I hope you’ve found them helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. If you’re interested in the 2018 Top Ten Index Fund Experiment, you can check it out here.
As for the future of the experiment:
  1. I’ll continue to hold and will report on the Top Ten Cryptos of 2018.
  2. I’ll continue to hold and will report on the Top Ten Cryptos of 2019.
  3. I’ve also decided to repeat the experiment with the Top Ten Cryptos of 2020.
Thanks again and all the best in 2020!
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (Nov. 2019 Update)

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (Nov. 2019 Update)
EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for Two Years (2018 & 2019) - Month Twenty-Three - Down 85%
Full blog post with all the tables
**NOTE 1** - I'm on the fence whether or not to repeat the experiment yet again in 2020 with the new Top Ten. The problem is that there's been almost no movement: unless something drastic changes in December, it will be the exact same group of cryptos as the 2019 Top Ten minus Tron and plus Binance Coin. Tracking almost the same group, in the same way, for similar prices isn't very inspiring. I have some other ideas, but very open to suggestions: if you have any good ideas, please share them in the comments below. **END NOTE 1**
**NOTE 2** - I usually like to release the two posts a day apart, but I'll be spacing out the Top Ten 2018 and the Top Ten 2019 reports a bit more as readers have mentioned they've been removed by the mods (no offence taken, mods - the content is similar, I assume the posts are being removed because they're seen as identical. **END NOTE 2**
tl;dr - After a positive bounce in October, the cryptoverse is back to the summer's downward trajectory. Every crypto was down in November. Cardano performed the best (or least horribly), Dash lost the month for the first time since the experiment began nearly two years ago. Overall, Bitcoin is still well ahead. 60% of the 2018 Top Ten cryptos has lost at least 90% of their January 2018 value. NEM continues to be the absolute worst performer.

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. Think of it as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the market as a whole - or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018/2019 crypto space. I’m trying to keep it simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet. I try not to take sides or analyze, but rather report and document in a detached manner letting the numbers speak for themselves.
I have also started a parallel project: on January 1st, 2019, I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) into the new Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st 2019. Spoiler alert: the 2019 Experiment makes for much happier reading.

The Rules:

Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2018. Run the experiment two years. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly. Compare loosely to the 2019 Top Ten Experiment.

Month Twenty-Three - Down 85%

After a strong October bounce, the 2018 Top Ten portfolio reverted to downward trajectory of the summer months. While all cryptos in the experiment were either in the green or flat last month, the opposite was true in November as each crypto ended the month solidly in the red.

Ranking and November Winners and Losers

There was no upward movement in November: every crypto either held onto its position or slid. After slipping three slots last month, Dash fell two more places in November and has now fallen to #22 and out of the Top Twenty for the first time since the beginning of the experiment. For the second straight month, IOTA dropped two places and now is in danger of joining Dash outside the Top Twenty. Bitcoin Cash and NEM also fell one position each, ending November at #5 and #28 respectively.
November Winners - Although it lost -11% in November, Cardano handily outperformed its peers. NEM finished in second, "only" down -15% on the month.
November Losers - Dash had a rough month, losing -28% of its value and dropping out of the Top Twenty. November also marks the first time since January 2018 that Dash ended a month at the bottom. Bitcoin Cash followed close behind Dash, finishing -27% in November.
For those keeping score, here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and losses during the first 23 months of this experiment. Most monthly wins (5): Bitcoin. Most monthly losses (5): Stellar. All cryptos have at least one monthly win. Up until last month, the only two coins never to lose a month were Bitcoin and Dash. Thanks to a Dash's dismal November, Bitcoin now stands alone as the only crypto that hasn't lost a month.

Overall update – Bitcoin still well ahead. 60% of the 2018 Top Ten cryptos have lost at least -90% of their January 2018 value, NEM still absolute worst performer.

Although down -45% since January 2018, Bitcoin is still miles ahead of the rest of the field. Litecoin and Ethereum are virtually tied for second place, down -79%.
NEM has performed the absolute worst (currently down -96%) but has plenty of company at the bottom: six out of the ten cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten are down at least 90%: NEM, Cardano, Dash, IOTA, Ripple, and Bitcoin Cash. My initial $100 investment in NEM is worth just $3.83.
Additionally, 40% of the cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have dropped out, specifically NEM, Dash, IOTA, and Cardano. They have been replaced by EOS, Binance Coin, Tether, and BTCSV.

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

The crypto market gave up its October gains and then some as $50B was shed in November. The overall market cap now back to the $198B mark, last seen in May 2019. Since January 2018, the total market cap is down -66%.

Bitcoin dominance:

Bitcoin dominance decreased slightly in November. For context, the range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2018 has been quite wide: a high of 70% in September 2019 and a low of 33% in February 2018.

Overall return on investment from January 1st, 2018:

The 2018 Top Ten Portfolio lost -$42 in November. If I cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return $150, down -85%.
The 2019 Top Ten Experiment is doing better. If I cashed that experiment out today, that $1,000 initial investment would return $1,100, a +10% gain. Full November report to come. In the meantime, here's the October update.
Taken together, here's the bottom bottom line: after a $2000 investment in both the 2018 and the 2019 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios would be worth $1,250.
That's down -37.5%.

Implications/Observations:

As always, the experiment's focus of solely holding the Top Ten Cryptos continues to be a losing approach. While the overall market is down -%66 from January 2018, the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten are down -85% over the same period. This of course implies that I would have done a bit better if I'd picked a different group of cryptos.
At no point in this experiment has this investment strategy been successful: the initial 2018 Top Ten have under-performed each of the twenty-three months compared to the market overall.
I'm also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The S&P 500 is now up +17.5% since the beginning of 2018. My initial $1k investment into crypto would have yielded about +$175 had it been redirected to the S&P.

Conclusion:

After a bounce in October, it seems like we're back to our previously scheduled programming of downward movement. One month to go in 2019, let's see what happens.
A note: although I'm planning on continuing to track both the 2018 and 2019 Top Ten Cryptos next year, I'm undecided on whether or not to repeat the experiment yet again in 2020. Please do leave your suggestions and ideas in the comments below.
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel project where I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of a new set of Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st 2019.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (Oct. 2019 Update)

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (Oct. 2019 Update)
[ EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for Two Years (2018 & 2019) - Month Twenty-Two - Down -81%]
Full blog post with all the tables
tl;dr - Thanks to some good news out of China, October produced gains which snapped a three month losing streak. $1000 investment in Top Ten cryptos on January 1st, 2018 is now worth about $192. Bitcoin maintains overall leader position followed by Litecoin then Ethereum. Take the two Top Ten experiments together, I'm down -21%.
**NOTE** - I usually like to release the two posts a day apart, but I'll be spacing out the Top Ten 2018 and the Top Ten 2019 reports a bit more as readers have mentioned they've been removed by the mods (no offence taken, mods - the content is quite similar, I assume the posts are being removed because they're seen as identical. **END NOTE**

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. Think of it as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the market as a whole - or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018/2019 crypto space. I’m trying to keep it simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet.
I have also started a parallel project: on January 1st, 2019, I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) into the new Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st 2019. Spoiler alert: the 2019 Experiment makes for much happier reading.

The Rules:

Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2018. Run the experiment two years. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly. Compare loosely to the 2019 Top Ten Experiment.

Month Twenty-Two - Down 81%

Thanks to some positive news out of China, October decisively broke a three month losing streak for the 2018 Top Ten portfolio. All cryptos in the experiment were either up or flat this month, a welcome change from summer's downward trend.

Ranking and October Winners and Losers

Although the market as a whole gained, a few of our 2018 Top Ten coins had trouble keeping up. IOTA and NEM each dropped two places to #18 and #27, respectively. Dash slid three slots, and now teeters on the edge of the Top Twenty. On the positive side Bitcoin Cash gained one position in the rankings, climbing to the four spot.
October Winners - Bitcoin Cash rebounded nicely after a dismal September finishing +29% up on the month. Ripple and Stellar had solid months as well, ending October at +16% and +14% respectively.
October Losers - Only IOTA lost value this month, down -1%. Along with NEM and Dash, the three were basically flat in October.
For those keeping score, here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and loses during the first 22 months of this experiment. Most monthly wins (5): Bitcoin. Most monthly loses (5): Stellar. All cryptos have at least one monthly win. The only two coins never to lose a month? Bitcoin and Dash.

Overall update – Bitcoin far ahead of peers. Four worst performers down over -90% each, NEM still in basement.

Bitcoin is still miles ahead of the pack maintaining a 40+ percentage point lead over second place Litecoin and third place Ethereum. This isn't even the widest lead Bitcoin has held since I started the experiment nearly two years ago: August 2019's +50% lead is still the record.
Looking through my past reports, poor NEM has been stuck in the basement all year. Since January 2019 is has been the experiment's worst overall performer. NEM is currently down -96% followed by Cardano, Dash, and IOTA all down over -90% since January 1st, 2018. My initial $100 investment in NEM is worth just $4.49.
40% of the cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have dropped out, specifically NEM, Dash, IOTA, and Cardano. They have been replaced by EOS, Binance Coin, Tether, and BTCSV.

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

Breaking a three month losing streak, crypto ended October in positive territory, up about +$26B by month's end. The overall market cap is sitting around the $248B mark, rebounding to September 2019 levels. Since January 2018, the total market cap is down -57%.
If you're looking for a silver lining, followers of my 2019 Top Ten Experiment will note that there has been an increase of +74% in total crypto market cap since the beginning 2019.

Bitcoin dominance:

Bitcoin dominance ticked down slightly in October, but no major shift from last month. For context, the range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2018 has been quite wide: a high of 70% in September 2019 and a low of 33% in February 2018.

Overall return on investment from January 1st, 2018:

After three straight months of loses, the portfolio gained a modest $17 in October. If I cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return $192, down nearly -81%.
The 2019 Top Ten Experiment is doing a bit better. If I cashed that experiment out today, that $1,000 initial investment would return $1,387, a +39% gain. Full October report to come.
Taken together, here's the bottom bottom line: after a $2000 investment in both the 2018 and the 2019 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios would be worth $1,579.
That's down about -21%.

Implications/Observations:

As always, the experiment's focus of solely holding the Top Ten Cryptos continues to be a losing approach. While the overall market is down -%57 from January 2018, the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten are down -81% over the same period.
At no point in this experiment has this investment strategy been successful: the initial 2018 Top Ten have under-performed each of the twenty-two months compared to the market overall.
I'm also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The S&P 500 is now up +15.2% since the beginning of 2018. My initial $1k investment into crypto would have yielded about +$152 had it been redirected to the S&P.

Conclusion:

Thanks to the news out of China, October ended up breaking the streak of three consecutive months of downward movement for crypto. Again, this shows that unpredictability is the norm in crypto: we seemed on track to continue the downward trend until the end of the year. With two months left in the year, will the October gains hold?
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel project where I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of a new set of Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st 2019.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptos of 2018 - Month 28 Update (Down -82%)

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptos of 2018 - Month 28 Update (Down -82%)
https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-28/
https://preview.redd.it/fadknmsjg5x41.png?width=666&format=png&auto=webp&s=e3a2de76c643f957d1b6f1b2f1b1ca09840988e9
See the full blog post with all the nerdy tables here.
tl;dr - Stellar dominates April, all coins in the green. BTC still way ahead overall, ETH reclaims a distant second place, and NEM (anyone remember NEM?) still in basement. 2018 Top Ten down -82% since Jan. 2018. When taken together, all three experiments (I repeated the experiment for 2019 and 2020) are basically even with S&P 500 since Jan 2018. More details that you probably care about below and stay safe out there.

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on the 1st of January 2018. The result? The 2018 Top Ten portfolio ended the year down 85%, my $1000 worth only $150. I repeated the experiment on the 1st of January 2019 with the new 2019 Top Ten cryptos, then again in 2020. Think of the Top Ten Experiments as a lazy man’s Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), less technical, but hopefully still a proxy for the market as a whole – or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018, 2019, and 2020 crypto space. I am trying to keep this project simple/accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet. I try not to take sides or analyze, but rather attempt to report in a detached manner letting the numbers speak for themselves. This experiment is designed to be documentary in nature, describing a specific period in cryptocurrency history.

The Rules:

Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 2018, 2019, and 2020. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly.

Month Twenty-Eight – Down 82%

Welcome back from the brink. While March saw the experiment enter full zombie apocalypse mode, the crypto market recovered bigly (or big league?) in April: every crypto finished in the green by at least double digit percentage gains.

Ranking and April Winners and Losers

Some ups, some downs, a good deal of movement. IOTA and NEM fell one position each down to #25 and #27 respectively. Although it seems like an eternity, remember these were the #7 and #8 ranked coins just a little over two years ago. On the upside, Cardano and Dash both climbed one position, while Stellar clawed back two spots, once again knocking on the door of the Top Ten at #11.
The overall drop out rate remains at the 50% mark (meaning half of the cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have dropped out). NEM, Dash, IOTA, Cardano, and Stellar have been replaced by EOS, Binance Coin, Tezos, Tether, and BSV.
April WinnersStellar dominated April, up an impressive +75%. Cardano finishes in second place, up +63% for the month.
April Losers – Every cryptocurrency finished April in positive territory, but NEM (+12%) and Bitcoin Cash (+15%) lagged behind the rest of the field.
For the overly competitive: below is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and losses in the first 28 months of the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment. Most monthly wins (7): Bitcoin. Most monthly losses (5): Stellar. All cryptos have at least one monthly win and Bitcoin now stands alone as the only crypto that hasn’t lost a month (although it came close in January 2020), when it gained “only” +31%).

Overall update – BTC still way ahead, ETH reclaims second place, NEM reclaims last place.

Bitcoin made up a lot of ground this month, moving -50% since January 2018 last month to -33% at the end of April. BTC is still well ahead of the field. This may feel like a foregone conclusion at this point, but for context, long time 2018 Top Ten Experiment followers will note that this has not always been a given. Just a little over a year ago, for example, BTC was second place behind Stellar.
Same goes for the 2019 and the 2020 Top Ten Experiments: BTC is not always at the top.
Ethereum broke the tie with Litecoin for second place this month, down -70% since January 2018. A similar situation at the bottom: NEM (down -96%) is now alone in last place. That initial $100 investment in NEM? Now worth $4.46.

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

The overall crypto market added about $63B in April 2020, basically getting back to late February levels. It is now down -57% from January 2018.

Bitcoin dominance:

Bitcoin dominance basically stayed put this month. For context, the range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2018 has been wide: a high of 70% BitDom in September 2019 and a low of 33% BitDom in February 2018.

Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2018:

The 2018 Top Ten Portfolio gained about $50 bucks in April 2020, back near where it was at the end of February. If I cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return about $183, down -82% from January 2018.
Here’s the ROI over the life of the experiment, month by month:
April 2020 is now the ninth consecutive time the portfolio has ended the month down at least -80%.
For comparison, the 2019 and 2020 Top Ten Experiments are solidly in positive territory:
Taking the three portfolios together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line:
After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios are worth $2,969‬.
That’s down about -1% for the combined portfolios. Definitely better than last month (aka the zombie apocalypse) where it was down -24%, but not yet back at January (+13%) or February (+6%) levels.

Comparison to S&P 500:

I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. April 2020 saw a large rebound in the stock market. Although not quite back up to end of February levels, the S&P added over +14% back this month. It is now +6% since the start of 2018. The initial $1k investment into crypto would have gained about $60 had it been redirected to the S&P.
This is where it gets interesting. Taking the same drop-$1,000-per-year-on-January-1st approach with the S&P 500 that I’ve been documenting through the Top Ten Crypto Experiments would yield the following:
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018: +$60
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019: +$130
  • $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020: -$120
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P:
After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,070.
That $3,070 is up about +2% since January 2018, compared to the $2,969 value (-1%) of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios.
That’s a only a 3% difference. Last month the gap was 13%.

Implications/Observations:

The 2018 Experiment’s focus of solely holding the Top Ten Cryptos has never been a winning approach when compared to the overall market. The total market cap is down -57% from January 2018 compared to the -82% for the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten. This of course implies that I would have done a bit better if I’d picked different cryptos – but better if I’d put all my eggs in NEM‘s -96% basket, for example. But at no point in this experiment has this investment strategy been successful: the initial 2018 Top Ten have under-performed each of the twenty-eight months compared to the market overall.
In the other two experiments, it’s a slightly different story. There are a few examples of this approach outperforming the overall market in the parallel 2019 Top Ten Crypto Experiment. For the most recent group, this approach has been 100% successful so far: each of the first four months of the 2020 Experiment show that focusing on the Top Ten beats the overall market.

Conclusion:

Although we’re not nearly out of the woods yet, countries and relaxing restrictions and markets, including the cryptosphere, are bouncing back. Will COVID-19 drive people to or from crypto? What happens if we get hit by a second wave of COVID-19. And how will the approaching Bitcoin halving effect markets in May?
Final word: second waves of COVID-19 are definitely possible. Please take care of yourselves, your families, and your communities. Keep up the social distancing, wear a mask, and wash your hands. Be careful out there.
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel projects where I repeat the experiment twice, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of two new sets of Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st, 2019 then again on January 1st, 2020.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (Year End Recap)

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (Year End Recap)

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for Two Years (2018 & 2019) - End of Year Summary - Down 86%
Full blog post with all the tables
**NOTE** - I usually like to release the two posts a day apart, but I'll be spacing out the Top Ten 2018 and the Top Ten 2019 reports a bit more as readers have mentioned they've been removed by the mods (no offence taken, mods - the content is similar, I assume the posts are being removed because they're seen as identical. **END NOTE**
tl;dr - Every crypto was down again in December. After two years tracking this group of cryptos, I'm down -86%. Although the market as a whole rebounded in 2019, the 2018 Top Ten portfolio was flat for the year. Bitcoin wins this year by far, do you know who one last year? 60% of the 2018 Top Ten cryptos has lost at least 90% of their January 2018 value and 50% of cryptos aren't in the Top Ten anymore. NEM continues to be the absolute worst performer. Happy New Year, Happy New Decade!

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. Think of it as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the market as a whole - or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018/2019 crypto space. I’m trying to keep it simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet.
I have also started a parallel project: on January 1st, 2019, I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) into the new Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st 2019. Spoiler alert: the 2019 Experiment makes for much happier reading.

Month Twenty-Four and Two Year Tally – Down 86% since January 2018

Thought not quite as bad as November, December was a rough month in the cryptoverse: for the second straight month, each of the 2018 Top Ten cryptos ended 2019 in the red.
Finally tally after two years of this experiment? I am now down -86% on the 2018 Top Ten crypto portfolio since January 2018. My $1,000 investment on the 1st of January 2018 is now worth $136.
This isn’t quite the record low: the 2018 Top Ten bottomed out at -88% in January of 2019.
The best month this year for this group of cryptos was June 2019, where this portfolio reached a -71% return on initial investment.

Ranking and December Winners and Losers

For the second straight month, there was no upward movement: every crypto either held onto its position or slid. Stellar, Cardano, and NEM, each dropped a position, down to #11, #13, and #29 respectively.
December was not kind to IOTA and Dash: IOTA fell three spots to #23 and Dash dropped four positions to #26.
December WinnersBitcoin pretty much broke even, down only -2% in December. Second place goes to Bitcoin Cash, down -6%.
December Losers – For the second month in a row, I’m going to have to give the loss to Dash. Although it virtually tied with IOTA and Dash (both down -21%), Dash also reached a new low, settling down at #26. A reminder: since January 2018, Dash had never ended a month in last place until last month.
For those keeping score, here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and losses after two years of the 2018 Top Ten Cryptos Experiment. Most monthly wins (6): Bitcoin. Most monthly losses (5): Stellar. All cryptos have at least one monthly win and Bitcoin now stands alone as the only crypto that hasn’t lost a month.

FINAL RESULTS after tracking this group through 2018 and 2019: Bitcoin is well in the lead, followed distantly by Litecoin, then Ethereum. NEM and Dash are the worst overall performers.

Although down -46% since January 2018, Bitcoin is still miles ahead of the rest of the field. Litecoin and Ethereum are virtually tied at a very distant second place down -81% and -82% respectively.
That’s what victory looks like for the Top Ten 2018 batch of cryptos.
If that’s victory, what’s defeat?
NEM has performed the absolute worst, down -97%. in two years. My initial $100 investment is now worth $3.47.
But NEM is by no means alone at the bottom: 60% of the cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten are down at least 90%: NEM, Cardano, Dash, IOTA, Ripple, and Bitcoin Cash.
As you’ll see on the chart above, 50% of the cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have dropped out, specifically NEM, Dash, IOTA, Stellar, and Cardano. They have been replaced by EOS, Binance Coin, Tether, Tezos, and BTCSV. Three coins (NEM, Dash, IOTA) have dropped out of the Top Twenty and one (NEM) is in danger of dropping out of the the Top Thirty. Quite a fall in two years.
Of note, with the exception Cardano, the Top Five cryptos have more or less stayed put over the course of the twenty-four month experiment. Also of note: Litecoin has maintained perfect consistency, ending 2017, 2018, and 2019 glued to the #6 position.
For extra credit, does anyone remember which crypto finished 2018 in the lead?
Answer – Stellar.
Probably not what you were thinking, huh?

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

The crypto space lost $9B in December, which isn't much for crypto and nowhere near the $50B which evaporated in November. The overall market cap is now back to the $189B mark, last seen in May 2019.
Two Year Final Market Cap Figures:
  • Since January 2018 – the total market cap for crypto has dropped -67%.
  • Since January 2019 – the total market cap for crypto has increased +49%
  • Worst Month – January 2019 ($114B total crypto market cap)
  • Best Month – January 2018 ($575B total crypto market cap)
  • The last time the total market cap reached $500B: January 2018
  • The last time the total market cap reached $400B: May 2018
  • The last time the total market cap reached $300B: August 2019
  • The last time the total market cap reached $200B: November 2019

Bitcoin dominance:

Bitcoin dominance ticked back up in December and ends 2019 at 68%, a level not seen since September 2019 and much higher than 2018’s year end figure of 52%.
For context, the range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2018 has been quite wide: a high of 70% in September 2019 and a low of 33% in February 2018.

Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2018:

After an initial $1000 investment, the 2018 Top Ten Portfolio is worth $136, down about -86% in two years.
Although the overall market ended 2019 stronger than the year before, the 2018 Top Ten Experiment cryptos finished at more or less the same level: last year the portfolio recorded a -85% loss and was worth $152.
  • Lowest 2018 Top Ten portfolio value: January 2019 ($122)
  • Highest 2018 Top Ten portfolio value: January 2018 ($792)
The 2019 Top Ten Experiment is doing better, but the year end report will show that group has basically broken even for the year, up a mere +2%. The year end report will be released soon for the 2019 Top Ten.
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom line: after a $2000 investment in both the 2018 and the 2019 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios would be worth $1,153.
That’s down about -42%.

Implications/Observations:

Congratulations to Bitcoin which significantly outperformed the rest of the field at the end of the first two years of the 2018 Top Ten Index Fund experiment.
Two years on, there are a few obvious takeaways from the 2018 experiment. Buying at all time highs put this experiment in a difficult position from the start and it has not yet come close to just breaking even. The high point of this experiment was at the end of the very first month (January 2018) where the portfolio was “only” down -20%. I haven’t run the numbers, but by eyeballing and with hindsight, it’s easy to see that it would have been much better to come in at just about any other time during that first year. The portfolio would still be down, but not like this – not like this.
That said, buying mid-January when prices were even higher would have been worse – hard to imagine considering my Top Ten buys on New Years Day 2018 have seen a -86% drop – but yes, it could have been even worse.
For each of the first twenty-four months, the experiment’s focus of solely holding the Top Ten Cryptos continues to be a losing approach. While the overall market is down -67% from January 2018, the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten are down -86% over the same period. This of course implies that I would have done a bit better if I’d picked different cryptos.
At no point in the 2018 Top Ten Experiment has this investment strategy been successful: the initial 2018 Top Ten have under-performed each of the twenty-four months compared to the market overall.
There are a few examples, however, of this approach outperforming the market in the parallel 2019 Top Ten Crypto Currency Experiment.
I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The S&P 500 is now up +21% since the beginning of 2018. My initial $1k investment into crypto would have yielded about +$210 had it been redirected to the S&P.

Conclusion:

Although the 2018 Top Ten Experiment cryptos ended 2019 pretty much where they began, the market overall saw some solid gains in 2019. 2018 ended pretty hopelessly as crypto seemed to be in free-fall. 2019 overall felt like a recovery story, as a bottom was reached. With The Bitcoin Halvening due to arrive mid 2020, it should be another interesting year in the crypto space.

Thanks and Future of the Experiments:

Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment(s). I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel project where I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of a new set of Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st 2019.
As for the future of the experiment, why not, let’s keep this thing rolling:
  1. I’ll continue to hold and will report on the Top Ten Cryptos of 2018.
  2. I’ll continue to hold and will report on the Top Ten Cryptos of 2019.
  3. I’ve also decided to repeat the experiment with the Top Ten Cryptos of 2020.
Thanks again and all the best in your crypto adventures!
edit: changed a bad link
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2019 (July 2019 Update)

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2019 (July 2019 Update)

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies of 2019 - Month Seven - UP 74%
Full blog post
tl;dr - July was a down month, but still up +74% in 2019. Bitcoin wins the month, overall Litecoin holds the smallest of leads, all cryptos in positive territory for the year except Stellar and XRP.

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. I then repeated the experiment on the 1st of January 2019. Think of it as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the market as a whole - or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2019 crypto space. Trying to keep it simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet.

The Rules:

Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2019. Run the experiment two years. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly. Compare loosely to the 2018 Top Ten Experiment.

Month Seven - Up 74%

https://preview.redd.it/q1zu3e4m3ne31.png?width=1130&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed5b6698d45543e949ef02796c1b3a9b1e7bbb0c
July hit the 2019 Top Ten portfolio hard, with a nearly -40% drop since the end of June. All cryptos are in the red except Bitcoin and Tether. June showed sideways movement, but July decisively breaks the five month win streak (or more preciously, a four-month-win-plus-one-month-sideways streak). That said, the 2019 Top Ten portfolio is still up +74% on the year.

Ranking

https://preview.redd.it/dsoc7m9u3ne31.png?width=331&format=png&auto=webp&s=1b0572ea1daf7aa361b38a386bf0271bb8b57d37
Lots of movement this month. All of the Top Ten cryptos moved except Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple. Of note, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash which switched places with each other again, Stellar reclaimed its spot in the Top Ten, and EOS dropped two spots to #8.
Tron is now alone as the only Top Ten dropout and has been replaced by Binance Coin.
July Winners - Bitcoin, easily. All others (except Tether) were down double digits, with most falling over -20%.
July Losers - Tron, easily, losing nearly 1/3rd of its value, down -32% in July. EOS had a rough month too, dropping -26% and two places in the rankings.
For those keeping score, here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and loses during the first seven months of this experiment: Bitcoin distinguished itself from the pack this month by achieving its second monthly victory of the year. Bitcoin SV still has the most monthly loses: three out of the first seven months.
https://preview.redd.it/mbqz58n04ne31.png?width=321&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa29d940d2a9a61b3bcad8c954150cf29f2a522c

Overall update – Litecoin holds the smallest of leads, all cryptos in positive territory except Stellar and Ripple

Similar to last month, although Bitcoin makes the headlines, it's actually Litecoin that continues to perform best, up +214% on the year. My initial $100 investment in Litecoin is now worth $321. But for the second month in a row, Bitcoin made up a ton of ground, finishing July just a few percentage points behind Litecoin.
Stellar is at the bottom, down -28% so far in 2019, followed by Ripple, down -10%.

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

https://preview.redd.it/y6pm81g64ne31.png?width=434&format=png&auto=webp&s=e70fd60bd3e529338c0dc7b8ffd9c97a3151384a
For the first time since February, the total crypto market cap decreased, losing about $13B in July. Still, the overall market cap remains over $300B, an increase of +143% since the beginning of 2019.

Bitcoin dominance:

https://preview.redd.it/79c40ey84ne31.png?width=408&format=png&auto=webp&s=474612060993e8ef2ba616df00a97445dc7c7afb
Bitcoin dominance leaped again in July, and now is close to 68%. This sets another record for Bitcoin dominance so far in the 2019 and 2018 Top Ten Experiments.

Overall return on investment from January 1st, 2019:

https://preview.redd.it/aizrumub4ne31.png?width=277&format=png&auto=webp&s=b00544202d688353d7c7d52d83ef0a69864d99d1
In July I saw my overall return shrink by about $400, quite a hit. If I cashed out today, my $1,000 initial investment would return $1,744, a +74% gain. Not at all bad compared to the stock market: the return I would have received from investing that same $1000 on January 1st, 2019 in the the S&P 500 is about +17%, same as last month (see below).

Implications/Observations:

Although the overall market ended down on the month, it's still up 143% on the year. What's noteworthy this month is the absolute chasm that's opened between the performance of the market overall and the Top Ten cryptos that I started with at the beginning of 2019. My Top Ten group? Up 74%. That's only half the return of the overall market. Remember, in May, the gains from the Top Ten and the entire market were both exactly the same amount: +114%. This month, not even close. For two straight months, focusing only on the Top Ten has been a losing strategy. This is reminiscent of last year as at no point in the Top Ten 2018 Experiment did the Top Ten strategy outperform the overall market.
I'm also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The S&P 500 was flat in July, still up +17% since the beginning of 2019. Solid gains, but of course nothing like what we've seen in crypto so far this year. The initial $1k investment I put into crypto would have yielded +$170 had it been redirected to the S&P compared to the $744 I'm currently up with the 2019 Top Ten Cryptos.
https://preview.redd.it/dalip23i4ne31.png?width=381&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c874654b3c313e26e0049d7f0ecd04ddcab423d

Conclusion:

July was an obvious down month for crypto. I've been a bit delayed on the update this month so as I'm putting this together, crypto's been on a bit of an upward run, with Bitcoin looking like it's about to test $12k. The monthly nature of these updates prevents me from getting caught up in the daily fluctuations of the crypto market and allows a bit of perspective. Taking a step back, it looks, at this point at least, like July was a bit of a speedbump, but by no means signals a crypto bear market - the overall trend of the first half of 2019 is unmistakably positive.
If you're just finding this experiment now, here's the backstory: On the 1st of January, 2018, I bought $100 each of the Top Ten cryptos at the time for a total investment of $1000 to see how they would perform over the year. I tracked the experiment and reported each month. The result? I ended 2018 down -85%, my $1000 worth only $150.
After last year's experiment ended, I decided to do two things:
  1. Extend the Top Ten 2018 Crypto project one more year. The experiment is now in its 19th month. You can check out the latest update here.
  2. What you're reading now is the 7th report of a parallel project: this year I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of the new Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st, 2019.
Thanks for reading and the support for the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2019 (Nov. 2019 Update)

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2019 (Nov. 2019 Update)
EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies of 2019 - Month Eleven - UP 10%
Full blog post with all the tables
**NOTE** - I'm on the fence whether or not to repeat the experiment yet again in 2020 with the new Top Ten. The problem is that there's not been a lot of movement, so not super interesting tracking the same coins at similar prices. I have some other ideas, but very open to suggestions: if you have any good ideas, please share them in the comments below. **END NOTE**
tl;dr - After a breather in October, crypto is back to the summer's downward trajectory. Every 2019 Top Ten crypto 2019 was down in November except of course Tether. Bitcoin Cash and Ripple both struggled in November, down -27% and -25% respectively. Overall, BTC and Litecoin are still far ahead of their peers, up +93% and +49% respectively in 2019, while Stellar continues to be a drag on the overall return of portfolio, down -50% in 2019.

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. I then repeated the experiment on the 1st of January 2019. Think of it as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the market as a whole - or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2019 crypto space. I am trying to keep this project simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet. I try not to take sides or analyze, but rather report and document in a detached manner letting the numbers speak for themselves.

The Rules:

Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2019. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly. Compare loosely to the 2018 Top Ten Experiment.

Month Ten - Up 10%

November was the complete opposite of October: 100% of the Top Ten cryptos were in the green last month, 100% are in the red this month (except Tether of course, which is always flat). When Tether is the best performer, it signals a rough month for the 2019 Top Ten portfolio.
Overall, the 2019 Top Ten portfolio is up +10% on the year. For context, this same group of cryptos was up +114% at the peak in May 2019. Additionally, the portfolio has fallen well behind the stock market as measured by the S&P 500 (see below).

Ranking and November Winners and Losers

Not much movement this month. Bitcoin Cash slipped back into the #5 slot. EOS and Tether both advanced a position (to#7 and #4, respectively) and that's it.
Big picture, in the constantly shifting crypto landscape, it's a bit of surprise that nearly all of the coins that started in the Top Ten on January 1st, 2019 are still there (except Tron, which stands alone as a Top Ten dropout, replaced by Binance Coin). This is certainly different from the 2018 Top Ten Experiment where coins have fallen and fallen hard.
November Winners - Winner, singular: Tether. A distant second is Stellar, down -17% in November.
November Losers - Bitcoin Cash followed by Ripple, down -27% and -25% respectively.
For those keeping score, here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and loses during the first eleven months of this experiment: Tether has pulled ahead of Bitcoin and BTCSV. Bitcoin SV has the most monthly losses, finishing last in four out of the first eleven months of 2019.

Overall update – Bitcoin maintains sizable lead over second place Litecoin. All cryptos in positive territory except Stellar, Ripple, and Tron.

BTC and Litecoin are still far ahead of their peers, up +93% and +49% respectively in 2019. My initial $100 investment in Bitcoin is now worth $197.
All Top Ten cryptos are still either flat or in positive territory except Stellar, Ripple and Tron. Stellar continues to be a drag on the overall return of the 2019 Top Ten portfolio, down -50% in 2019. Ripple and Tron follow down about -40% and about -20% respectively.

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

The crypto market gave up its October gains and then some as $50B was shed in November. The overall market cap now back to the $198B mark, last seen in May 2019.
A bit of perspective: it still has been a very strong year for crypto overall. The entire market cap is up +56% since the beginning of 2019.

Bitcoin dominance:

Bitcoin dominance decreased slightly in November. The range this year has gone from a high of 70% in September 2019 to a low of 50% in March 2019.

Overall return on investment from January 1st, 2019:

If I cashed out the 2019 Top Ten portfolio today, my $1,000 initial investment would return $1,100, a +10% gain.
I'm down significantly in my 2018 Top Ten Experiment. If I cashed that group out today, the $1000 initial investment would return about $150, down nearly -85%.
Taken together, here's the bottom bottom line: after a $2000 investment in both the 2018 and the 2019 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios would be worth $1,250.
That's down -37.5%.

Implications/Observations:

With the crypto market as a whole up +56% on the year, how have the 2019 Top Ten cryptos performed? Up a much lower +10%. As a reminder, in May 2019, the gains from the 2019 Top Ten and the entire market cap were both exactly the same: +114%. The last few months have seen that gap widen: for six straight months, focusing only on the Top Ten has been a losing strategy. This of course implies that I would have done a bit better if I'd picked a different group of cryptos.
This is reminiscent of last year as at no point in the Top Ten 2018 Experiment did the Top Ten strategy outperform the overall market.
I'm also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The S&P 500 is up +24% since the beginning of 2019. This is now more than double the +10% my 2019 Top Ten portfolio is returning. Quite a turnaround from May of this year, when the Top Ten portfolio was up +114% compared to +10% for the S&P.
So, the initial $1k investment I put into crypto would now be worth $1240 had it been redirected to the S&P 500.

Conclusion:

After a reprieve in October, crypto has resumed the slide it started in the summer. Until recently, it looked like the 2019 Top Ten would easily outperform the market on the year, but that outcome is definitely in doubt now. More telling, with only one month left in 2019, I'm no longer confident that the portfolio will at least break even: as of the end of November, the 2019 Top Ten portfolio only holds a slim +10% return, gains that can easily evaporate before the new year.
If you're just finding this experiment now, here's the backstory: On the 1st of January, 2018, I bought $100 each of the Top Ten cryptos at the time for a total investment of $1000 to see how they would perform over the year. I tracked the experiment and reported each month. The result? I ended 2018 down -85%, my $1000 worth only $150.
After last year's experiment ended, I decided to do two things:
  1. Extend the Top Ten 2018 Crypto project one more year. The experiment is now in its 23rd month. You can check out the latest update here.
  2. What you're reading now is the 11th report of a parallel project: this year I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of the new Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st, 2019.
Thanks for reading and the support for the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports.
Again: although I'm planning on continuing to track both the 2018 and 2019 Top Ten Cryptos next year, I'm undecided on whether or not to repeat the experiment yet again in 2020. Please do leave your suggestions and ideas in the comments below.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

What if you bought and held $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018? (June 2019 Update)

What if you bought and held $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018? (June 2019 Update)

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for Two Years (2018 & 2019) - Month Eighteen - Down 71%
Full blog post
tl;dr - June marked the fifth positive month in a row. Still down -71% over life of experiment. Bitcoin takes commanding overall lead and wins the month as well.

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. Think of it as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the market as a whole - or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018/2019 crypto space. I’m trying to keep it simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet.
I have also started a parallel project: on January 1st, 2019, I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) into the new Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st 2019. Spoiler alert: it's a night and day difference between the two experiments.

The Rules:

Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2018. Run the experiment two years. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly.

Month Eighteen - Down 71%

https://preview.redd.it/ssk1c0h8hp731.png?width=898&format=png&auto=webp&s=d251fcd69dca43a136c1f203f557cc1ee243842a
Despite steady growth all month, the end of June ended on a downward trend. The final month-end numbers are still up from last month, but just barely, despite the excitement of Bitcoin briefly approaching $14,000. In fairness, May 2019 was an incredibly strong month in crypto - very hard to beat. The experiment has now seen five straight months of gains.

Ranking

https://preview.redd.it/0hhyglmahp731.png?width=264&format=png&auto=webp&s=a4cfeb6aad97b748a1cf30cc745c923a25f26143
Lots of movement in June, most of it downward. IOTA slipped three places from #15 to #18, Stellar fell two spots and out of the Top Ten to #12, and both NEM and Dash dropped a slot to #21 and #15 respectively.
On the positive side, Cardano re-entered the Top Ten, moving two places from #12 to #10. And the most significant move this month was probably Litecoin switching places with Bitcoin Cash. Litecoin now sits at #4, Bitcoin Cash at #5.
NEM, Dash, IOTA, and Stellar are Top Ten dropouts - they have been replaced by EOS, Binance Coin, Tether, and BTCSV.
June Winners - Bitcoin dominated the headlines for good reason - even after a significant correction at the end of the month, it is still up 30% in June. ETH finished second, up 13%, followed by Litecoin, up 10%.
June Losers - For the third month in a row Stellar was the worst performer, down -20% followed by IOTA, down -13% in June.
For those keeping score, here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and loses during the first 18 months of this experiment. Most monthly wins (3): Litecoin and Bitcoin. Most monthly loses (5): Stellar.
https://preview.redd.it/2yzr97uchp731.png?width=258&format=png&auto=webp&s=a15db9a5a14f0261ed6efb3ff0f43ddf273305a6

Overall update – Bitcoin increases lead and approaches break-even point. NEM and IOTA still at the bottom.

Bitcoin followed up its stellar May with a very strong June. It is now only down -16% since January 2018 and is approaching the break-even point. Litecoin is a very distant second at -43% since the experiment began.
NEM is still the worst overall performer (down -90%) followed by IOTA which is down -88% and ADA down -87%. My initial $100 investment in NEM is worth just $10.03.

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

https://preview.redd.it/mj9h8bmehp731.png?width=348&format=png&auto=webp&s=f0075fd79f7ca1950deee8d272969855fb5763bb
The total crypto market cap increased about $50B in June, a significant gain, but only half of what it added in May. Overall, the experiment has crossed the -50% threshold and is down "only" -44% at the moment, a level we haven't seen since June 2018.

Bitcoin dominance:

https://preview.redd.it/vj7tea2ghp731.png?width=323&format=png&auto=webp&s=d58b4eb753ea975ea53a7a0dd534bd1838886de6
Bitcoin dominance now stands at 61.4%, easily the highest point so far in the experiment.

Overall return on investment from January 1st, 2018:

https://preview.redd.it/52x70aohhp731.png?width=224&format=png&auto=webp&s=75868f1b0ec54c5a269fb7f52cba196d00ae97b1
My Top Ten of 2018 portfolio increased about $15 in total value this month. I can now mark five months in a row with increasing total value, a new record in the experiment.
If I cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return about $295, down -71%.

Implications/Observations:

Although BTC is up +30% and the overall market added $50B, my Top Ten experiment cryptos only gained about +1.5%. It's fair to say that Bitcoin is leading the charge and that the altcoins haven't had their day yet.
Although gains in June were modest, this is now the fifth positive month in a row for the 2018 Top Ten, unprecedented thus far in the experiment.
Once again this month marks a record high in Bitcoin dominance, the highest since the experiment started in January 2018, over 61%.
Bitcoin continues to increase its overall lead. After eighteen months, it is now 25% ahead of second place Litecoin in terms of return on initial investment.
The experiment's focus of solely holding the Top Ten again looks like an especially poor strategy this month. While the overall market is down -44% from January 2018, the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten are down -71% over the same period of time. That's over a 25% difference, is the widest gap of the experiment so far, and is significantly more than last month's record 20% difference.
At no point has this investment strategy worked: the initial 2018 Top Ten have under-performed every single month compared to the market overall.
I'm also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The S&P 500 is now up +10% since the beginning of 2018. My initial $1k investment into crypto would have yielded about +$100 had it been redirected to the S&P.
https://preview.redd.it/j2m6mcnjhp731.png?width=302&format=png&auto=webp&s=a879b108470a8b1dc8f6c4cf1ab4254467aad2b1

Conclusion:

Last month I ended my update wondering if Bitcoin would hit $10k, which it flew by. With still relatively little mainstream attention, is $15k attainable in the near term or are we back to moving sideways? How much longer can BTC sustain its momentum? And when its exhausted, will the alts see a bounce?
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel project where I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of the new Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st 2019.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (Aug. 2019 Update)

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (Aug. 2019 Update)

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for Two Years (2018 & 2019) - Month Twenty - Down 80%
Full blog post
tl;dr - August marked the second down month in a row and Bitcoin snapped its streak of six straight months of growth. Bitcoin dominance sets yet another all time Experiment high and is 50 percentage points ahead of second place Litecoin.

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. Think of it as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the market as a whole - or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018/2019 crypto space. I’m trying to keep it simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet.
I have also started a parallel project: on January 1st, 2019, I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) into the new Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st 2019. Spoiler alert: the 2019 Experiment makes for happier reading.

The Rules:

Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2018. Run the experiment two years. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly.

Month Twenty - Down 80%

https://preview.redd.it/fx3itih2klk31.png?width=1128&format=png&auto=webp&s=0849826fb90014a84c48352a9d21900f037135b6
August ended completely in the red with all of the 2018 Top Ten losing ground. BTC performed the "best", down -10%. While February through June saw five straight months of upward trajectory, July and August have ushered in two-month downward streak.

Ranking

https://preview.redd.it/o3klsxc5klk31.png?width=352&format=png&auto=webp&s=9998d36de6d6e3eaf18b7d7ddfd1ac275a81eecf
Despite being down for the month Cardano and IOTA both gained a place in the rankings against their peers. NEM continued its slow and steady fall, now at #24. Stellar keeps yo-yoing in and out of the Top Ten, this month dropping to #11. Dash had a tough August, dropping two places to #17.
NEM, Dash, IOTA, Stellar, and Cardano are the 2018 Top Ten dropouts - they have been replaced by EOS, Binance Coin, Tether, Monero and BTCSV.
August Winners - Although down -10%, this was enough for Bitcoin to outperform the field.
August Losers - All coins finished in the red, but Litecoin had roughest month, down -29% followed by NEM, down -26%. Stellar dropped back out of the Top Ten as well.
For those keeping score, here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and loses during the first 20 months of this experiment. Most monthly wins (5): Bitcoin. Most monthly loses (5): Stellar. All cryptos have at least one monthly win. The only two coins never to lose a month? Bitcoin and Dash.
https://preview.redd.it/mjgzmk97klk31.png?width=352&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce4f56bdd5f7da16448ebf5a9eac9c9d663f77d9

Overall update – Bitcoin opens widest lead of the experiment. NEM, Cardano, and IOTA worst performers.

Although down -10% on the month, Bitcoin is crushing the other Top Ten experiment coins. BTC is down -20% since January 1st 2018 but now holds a +50 percentage point lead over second place Litecoin which is down nearly -70% over the same period. This is by far the widest lead Bitcoin (or any coin for that matter) has held since I started the experiment nearly two years ago.
NEM is still the worst overall performer (down -95%) followed by IOTA and ADA both down -93%. My initial $100 investment in NEM is worth just $5.20.

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

https://preview.redd.it/fhpgaoj9klk31.png?width=436&format=png&auto=webp&s=73776ecf73d90c78ed73add3262aa07d58b9b161
For the second straight month, the total crypto market cap decreased, shedding about $40B in August. The overall market cap dipped below the $300B mark and is back to a level we saw around early June 2019.

Bitcoin dominance:

https://preview.redd.it/dcmlbhebklk31.png?width=405&format=png&auto=webp&s=d432486c2b4b71c5d746937ec2ec1150a0ff12c6
Bitcoin dominance continues to increase, now at 70%. This is easily the highest point so far since the experiment began in January 2018. For context, Bitcoin dominance was at 33% in early February 2018.

Overall return on investment from January 1st, 2018:

https://preview.redd.it/gsweszecklk31.png?width=305&format=png&auto=webp&s=43f75a36f00b4ecc03ef29033179b3efd1212999
My Top Ten 2018 portfolio lost about $45 in total value this month. The August decrease confirms a two month losing streak after an impressive five month straight run of gains (February to June).
If I cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return about $203, down nearly -80%.

Implications/Observations:

Although still down overall since January 2018, Bitcoin is dominating the space and showing no mercy towards other cryptocurrencies. August did snap BTC's streak of six straight months of growth but this month also saw it shatter the 70% dominance figure for the first time since the experiment began.
Bitcoin continues to increase its overall lead. After twenty months, it is now about 50 percentage points ahead of distant second place Litecoin in terms of return on initial investment.
As always, the experiment's focus of solely holding the Top Ten Cryptos continues to be a losing approach. While the overall market is down -%53 from January 2018, the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten are down -80% over the same period. That's close to a 30% difference, the widest gap of the experiment so far.
At no point has this investment strategy worked: the initial 2018 Top Ten have under-performed each of the twenty months compared to the market overall.
I'm also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The S&P 500 is now up +8.7% since the beginning of 2018. My initial $1k investment into crypto would have yielded about +$87 had it been redirected to the S&P. (By the way, I'm not counting reinvested dividends, just as I'm not tracking potential staking rewards in cypto. Reason? Laziness).
https://preview.redd.it/t6e04amfklk31.png?width=383&format=png&auto=webp&s=fcc02316c1a1dde066cc26e61bff97bf70b12c98

Conclusion:

No doubt about it, August was a down month for crypto - the first all red month for the Top Ten 2018 Experiment cryptos since January 2019. Bitcoin, after getting tantalizingly close to the break even point in July (the price I paid on January 1st 2018) retreated a bit in August, but still continues to dominate. 70% dominance seems incredibly high - how much higher can it go? Will alts ever make a move?
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel project where I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of a new set of Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st 2019.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2019 (Oct. 2019 Update)

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2019 (Oct. 2019 Update)

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies of 2019 - Month Ten - UP 39%
Full blog post with all the tables
tl;dr - Every 2019 Top Ten crypto gained in October and the group is up +39% so far this year. BTSV and Tron have a strong month while Bitcoin leads overall followed by Litecoin up +145% and 95% respectively.
Take the two Top Ten experiments together, I'm down -21%.
**NOTE** I'm not usually one to name and shame, but since you haven't responded to my message in a week u/cryptosyringe: I noticed you took my post without permission, posted it on your website, removed my links, claimed it as your own, without giving me a mention let alone credit. Stop it.
The Experiment:
Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. I then repeated the experiment on the 1st of January 2019. Think of it as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the market as a whole - or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2019 crypto space. I am trying to keep this project simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet. I try not to take sides or analyze, but rather report and document in a detached manner letting the numbers speak for themselves.
The Rules:
Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2019. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly. Compare loosely to the 2018 Top Ten Experiment.
Month Ten - Up 39%
With each of the 2019 Top Ten Cryptos finishing in the green (except Tether of course, which was flat), October decisively snapped the downward trend we had seen over the three previous months. When Tether finishes last, the portfolio is having a good month.
Overall, the 2019 Top Ten portfolio is up a strong +39% on the year, but no where near the +114% peak this same portfolio achieved at the end of May 2019.
Tied last month with the stock market (as measured by the S&P 500), the 2019 Top Ten Portfolio has regained a healthy lead (see below).
Ranking and October Winners and Losers
It's almost as if the rankings were reset in October: despite some internal maneuvering (Bitcoin Cash back into fourth place, EOS and Tether both slipping a spot to #8 and #5, respectively), the players remain almost exactly the same. Even Tron, which has slipped out of the Top Ten, is almost back in its original position thanks to a very strong month where it climbed from #14 to #11.
This is quite different from the 2018 Top Ten Experiment where after 10 months four cryptos had convincingly dropped out of the Top Ten. It's only gotten worse as those four have continued to fall as the 2018 experiment rolls on.
Again, despite its strong October, Tron stands alone as a Top Ten dropout, replaced by Binance Coin.
October Winners - BTCSV gained a massive +50%, easily outperforming the field. Second goes to Tron, up +36%.
October Losers - Tether alone was in the red this month, followed by Ethereum which gained a modest +4%.
For those keeping score, here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and loses during the first ten months of this experiment: a three way tie between Bitcoin, BTCSV, and Tether all with two monthly victories each. Bitcoin SV also has the most monthly loses, finishing last in four out of the first ten months of 2019.
Overall update – Bitcoin with a sizable lead followed by Litecoin. All cryptos in positive territory except Ripple and Stellar.
BTC and Litecoin are still far ahead of their peers, up +145% and +95% respectively in 2019. My initial $100 investment in Bitcoin is now worth $250.
All Top Ten cryptos are still either flat or in positive territory except Ripple and Stellar. Although each increased in value in October, Stellar remains in the basement down -40% so far in 2019, followed by Ripple, down -18%.
Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:
After three straight losing months, October saw a bounce. The total crypto market cap increased about $26B in October. The overall market cap is sitting around the $248B mark, a level we last saw in September 2019.
Still, it has been a very strong year for crypto: we've seen an increase of +95% in total crypto market cap since the beginning of 2019.
Bitcoin dominance:
Bitcoin dominance ticked down slightly in October, down about -1/2% to 67.2%. The month end high in 2019 was 70.5% in at the end of August.
Overall return on investment from January 1st, 2019:
If I cashed out today, my $1,000 initial investment would return $1,386, a +39% gain.
I'm down significantly in my 2018 Top Ten Experiment. If I cashed that group out today, the $1000 initial investment would return about $192, down nearly -81%.
So, taken together, here's the bottom bottom line: after a $2000 investment in both the 2018 and the 2019 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios would be worth $1,579.
That's down about -21%.
Implications/Observations:
With the market as a whole up +95% on the year, how have the 2019 Top Ten cryptos performed? Up a respectable but still much lower +39%. As a reminder, in May 2019, the gains from the Top Ten and the entire market were both exactly the same: +114%. The last few months have seen that gap widen: for five straight months, focusing only on the Top Ten has been a losing strategy.
This is reminiscent of last year as at no point in the Top Ten 2018 Experiment did the Top Ten strategy outperform the overall market.
I'm also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The S&P 500 is up a very healthy +23% since the beginning of 2019, but still much less than the Top Ten of 2019, up +39%.
For reference, the gap has been extremely wide at different points during the year. For example, the Top Ten portfolio was up +114% compared to +10% for the S&P in late May of this year.
The initial $1k investment I put into crypto would have yielded +$230 had it been redirected to the S&P.
Conclusion:
Probably due to the news out of China, October saw a welcome reversal of a multi month slide in crypto. The last few months of the year have been busy in recent history. Around this time of year two years ago, the market started skyrocketing while last year it started to slide. We'll soon see which of these histories repeat itself or if crypto has something altogether different in store.
If you're just finding this experiment now, here's the backstory: On the 1st of January, 2018, I bought $100 each of the Top Ten cryptos at the time for a total investment of $1000 to see how they would perform over the year. I tracked the experiment and reported each month. The result? I ended 2018 down -85%, my $1000 worth only $150.
After last year's experiment ended, I decided to do two things:
  1. Extend the Top Ten 2018 Crypto project one more year. The experiment is now in its 22nd month. You can check out the latest update here.
  2. What you're reading now is the 10th report of a parallel project: this year I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of the new Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st, 2019.
Thanks for reading and the support for the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2019 (Aug. 2019 Update)

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2019 (Aug. 2019 Update)

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies of 2019 - Month Eight - UP 42%
Full blog post
tl;dr - August marked the second down month in a row. Previous leader Litecoin is overtaken by Bitcoin, which is now the best performing crypto in the experiment. Overall I'm up +$422 in the 2019 Top Ten portfolio.

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. I then repeated the experiment on the 1st of January 2019. Think of it as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the market as a whole - or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2019 crypto space. Trying to keep it simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet.

The Rules:

Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2019. Run the experiment two years. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly. Compare loosely to the 2018 Top Ten Experiment.

Month Eight - Up 42%

https://preview.redd.it/nay33b8yhsk31.png?width=1126&format=png&auto=webp&s=36db65e13cbbaed9b5acb267800b7a50cc007514
August was a bloody month for the 2019 Top Ten. All cryptos are in the red except Tether, which is of course flat. And when Tether is your top performer, you know it's been a bad month.
We have observed two straight downward months after a nice five month streak of either gains or sideways movement. That said, the 2019 Top Ten portfolio is still up +42% on the year, far better than the stock market as measured by the S&P (see below).

Ranking

https://preview.redd.it/07l66kyzhsk31.png?width=356&format=png&auto=webp&s=ae0fc4f5d1494d930698bda4f43f6832a4b575fb
Not much movement this month. It seems Stellar can't decide whether or not it wants to be in Top Ten, dropping out (again) to #11. Tron had a tough month, sliding down two spots to 14th. Tether moved up a spot but again, when Tether gains/advances in rank, it's a sign of a bad month.
Stellar joined Tron as a Top Ten dropout. They have been replaced by Binance Coin and Monero.
August Winners - Tether, by far. This is Tether's first monthly win. Bitcoin finished second, down -10%.
August Losers - Though technically a tie, I have to give the loss to Tron over Litecoin. Both are down -29% on the month, but Tron also lost two places in the rankings. Tron has now held the title of worst performer for two months in a row.
For those keeping score, here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and loses during the first eight months of this experiment: Bitcoin has two monthly victories. Tron has now tied Bitcoin SV for the most monthly loses: three out of the first eight months each.
https://preview.redd.it/shcoyxo1isk31.png?width=347&format=png&auto=webp&s=35a551d0a5b370111416396f6337adb3596eb3fc

Overall update – Bitcoin rockets past Litecoin, most cryptos in positive territory.

For those just joining the Experiment, despite the attention/press Bitcoin receives Litecoin was quietly the best performer of the year - up until this month. Litecoin gave up its lead and then some in August: BTC is now up +181% while Litecoin is 'only' up +123%. My initial $100 investment in Bitcoin is now worth $286.
Most cryptos are either flat or in positive territory. The exceptions are Ripple, Stellar, and Tron - Stellar is squarely at the bottom, down -45% so far in 2019, followed by Ripple, down -27%.

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

https://preview.redd.it/msbqofq3isk31.png?width=432&format=png&auto=webp&s=e6aeda5b791feafc5dce9cfaf9be1f96225b2b6b
For the second straight month, the total crypto market cap decreased, losing about $40B in August. The overall market cap dipped below the $300B mark and is back to a level we saw around early June 2019. Still, there has been an increase of +111% since the beginning of 2019.

Bitcoin dominance:

https://preview.redd.it/hf2f6vz4isk31.png?width=406&format=png&auto=webp&s=0477b575219caeb1741132033594aa7829187928
Just when you think it can't get any higher, Bitcoin dominance jumps again in August, and now is over 70%. This sets another record for Bitcoin dominance so far in the 2019 and 2018 Top Ten Experiments.

Overall return on investment from January 1st, 2019:

https://preview.redd.it/fybd7ug6isk31.png?width=309&format=png&auto=webp&s=774cc86df0edcc3e7d7ff6498cbbd74d8bbc0aaf
I'm down about -$300 in August (after losing $400 in July). If I cashed out today, my $1,000 initial investment would return $1,422, a +42% gain.
In contrast, I'm down significantly in my 2018 Top Ten Index Fund Experiment. If I cashed that group out today, the $1000 initial investment would return about $203, down nearly -80%.
So, taken together, here's the bottom bottom line: after a $2000 investment in both the 2018 and the 2019 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios are worth $1,625. That's down about -19%.

Implications/Observations:

Although the crypto space has seen two consecutive down months, the market as a whole is still up +111% on the year. In comparison, how have the 2019 Top Ten cryptos done? Up +42%. That's less than half the return of the overall market.
As a reminder, in May, the gains from the Top Ten and the entire market were both exactly the same amount: +114%. The last few months have seen that gap widen: for three straight months, focusing only on the Top Ten has been a losing strategy. This is reminiscent of last year as at no point in the Top Ten 2018 Experiment did the Top Ten strategy outperform the overall market.
I'm also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The S&P 500 is up +17% since the beginning of 2019. Very solid gains, but of course nothing like what we've seen in crypto so far this year. The initial $1k investment I put into crypto would have yielded +$160 had it been redirected to the S&P compared to the +$422 I'm currently up with the 2019 Top Ten Cryptos.
https://preview.redd.it/0q071zc8isk31.png?width=384&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea690f9ad2ee1ed4e823d8ea54ba2b6d52c3b90f

Conclusion:

After an unmistakably positive first half of the year, the second half has started with two back to back down trending months. Bitcoin continues to set Experiment records for dominance. Are altcoins dead? If not, how high can BTC dominance before altcoins make a move?
If you're just finding this experiment now, here's the backstory: On the 1st of January, 2018, I bought $100 each of the Top Ten cryptos at the time for a total investment of $1000 to see how they would perform over the year. I tracked the experiment and reported each month. The result? I ended 2018 down -85%, my $1000 worth only $150.
After last year's experiment ended, I decided to do two things:
  1. Extend the Top Ten 2018 Crypto project one more year. The experiment is now in its 20th month. You can check out the latest update here.
  2. What you're reading now is the 8th report of a parallel project: this year I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of the new Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st, 2019.
Thanks for reading and the support for the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Wall Street 2.0: How Blockchain will revolutionise Wall Street and a closer look at Quant Network’s Partnership with AX Trading

Wall Street 2.0: How Blockchain will revolutionise Wall Street and a closer look at Quant Network’s Partnership with AX Trading
AX Trading LLC (AX), a technology-enabled registered broker-dealer and Alternative Trading System (ATS) operator, today announced a strategic partnership with Quant Network a pioneering technology company providing financial and regulatory technology as well as interoperability in financial services, payments and capital markets infrastructure. Through this partnership, Quant Network’s technology, Overledger a blockchain operating system, will enable universal interoperability for regulatory-compliant security tokens and digital assets to be traded on AX ATS, a regulated secondary trading market. AX intends to integrate Overledger to help foster the evolution of traditional capital markets infrastructure to facilitate the mass implementation of interoperable regulated digital assets. With the increased market adoption of digital assets and banking “coins” such as JPMorgan Coin, AX and Quant Network are at the forefront to enable the transferability and movement of digital assets. George O’Krepkie, AX CEO said: “we look forward to partnering with Quant. Their technology will allow our blockchain agnostic security token exchange to communicate seamlessly with issuers, traders, investors, and regulators across different blockchain protocols. This is a key technological breakthrough that will help us bring the benefits of security tokens to Main Street and Wall Street.” It is expected that the first interoperable digital asset offering may commence as soon as January 2020, and that the AX Trading ATS may be ready to enable and list interoperable digital assets and securities in 2020.
Let’s have a closer look at what that means to truly appreciate the significance of the partnership by covering the basics for those not familiar with wall street.
https://preview.redd.it/2z8h6uqos0m31.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=a1c02216ce4eda8f3e06abdb6fe519b36efd1be6

What is an Institutional Investor / Trader?

An institutional investor is an organization that invests on behalf of the organization's members. They consist of hedge funds, banks, investment banks, pension funds, insurance companies, endowment funds, or any other type of money management firm.
Institutional investors account for about three-quarters of the volume on the New York Stock Exchange (which alone handles more than $20 Trillion a year in volume). In the US, Institutional investors own about 80 % of the total market value of the equity (stock) market, which globally is worth more than $73 trillion.
Wall Street refers to the institutional investors I mentioned above whereas Main Street refers collectively to members of the general public who are not accredited investors and the overall economy as a whole.
Whilst the Equity Market is huge, Institutional investors also invest in other securities which are prime to be tokenised such as Real Estate Market (Globally worth $217 trillion), the Debt Market (Globally worth $215 trillion) and the Derivatives Market (Low end estimates at $544 trillion and high-end estimates at $1.2 quadrillion). All of which makes the current market cap for cryptocurrencies look like a drop in the ocean.

Who are AX Trading?

AX Trading is a SEC-registered broker-dealer and Alternative Trading System (ATS) Operator. They are a member of FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority)and SIPC ( Securities Investor Protection Corporation) regulated authorities. The SEC has some of the most stringent regulations in the world for listing securities and there are fewer than 50 SEC-registered Alternative Trading System Operators in the United States, of which only a handful are currently implementing Digital Assets. Others are awaiting regulatory approval with Coinbase, Circle etc are all looking at getting into this huge market.
https://www.coindesk.com/stonewalled-by-finra-up-to-40-crypto-securities-wait-in-limbo-for-launch
AX Trading have investors and sponsored brokers including the likes of Credit Suisse, (a multinational investment Bank and Financial services company worth $27.5 billion). AX currently have over 800 Institutional traders (these are not individuals, but corporations such as hedge funds, banks, investment banks, pension funds, insurance companies, endowment funds etc).
AX Trading have also partnered with Euronext, the largest Stock Exchange in Europe with a market cap of $4.65 trillion as of 2018, in the creation of Euronext Block which utilises AX Trading.

What is an Alternative Trading System?

An Alternative Trading System (ATS) is an SEC-regulated trading venue which serves as an alternative to trading at a public exchange. ATS account for much of the liquidity found in publicly traded issues worldwide. They are known as multilateral trading facilities in Europe, electronic communication networks (ECNs), cross networks, and call networks
AX is the world’s first “Electronic Trading Network” (ETN) where institutional traders can proactively connect and trade with other counterparties in a secure environment. Unlike traditional stock exchanges/ECNs that show orders to everyone and traditional dark pools/crossing systems that show orders — presumably — to no one, AX allows institutional traders to pick and choose WHOM they want to notify and also WHAT information they want to share with them.
Institutional investors may use an ATS to find counterparties for transactions instead of trading large blocks of shares on national stock exchanges. These actions may be designed to conceal trading from public view since ATS transactions do not appear on national exchange order books. The benefit of using an ATS to execute such orders is that it reduces the domino effect that large trades might have on the price of an equity.

How does AX Trading Work?

The AX Trading process begins when one trader sends an “initiated” order to AX. The order can be routed to the AX ATS via one of our broker sponsors such as Credit Suisse. The initiated order triggers a “Call Auction” on AX, a period of time when the order will rest in AX to be matched against other orders from auction responders.
The Initiator of an AX auction decides who they want to invite to participate in the auction, whether they be all 800+ institutional members or targeted to specific ones, as well as how much info they want to disclose about the order. Based on these instructions, the AX ATS then notifies the members inviting them to participate in the trade.
The invited members can then participate in the trade by either placing buy orders of their own or placing sell orders. At the end of the AX auction period, all orders are brought together, and a match is performed.
In the traditional, continuous market with displayed bids and offers, traders are often chasing liquidity. In other words, the price may move away from them the more they buy or sell to what is commonly called “market impact.” On AX, the advantage of their call auction model is it brings liquidity — in the form of participant orders to the buyer rather than them chasing liquidity.

What is a Security Token?

Security Tokens are different than Utility Tokens or Cryptocurrencies. A security token is a digital representation of a traditional security. It may represent shares in a company, interest in a fund, real estate, art collectables, or essentially any asset a party can own. Anthony Pompliano wrote an article explaining tokenised securities in more detail which you can see here
Security Tokens are digital assets subject to federal security regulations. In layman terms, they are the intersection of digital assets (tokens) with traditional financial products — a new technology improving old things. If cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are considered “programmable money” then you can consider Security Tokens a version of “programmable ownership.” This means that any asset with ownership can and will be tokenized (public & private equities, debt, real estate, etc).
https://preview.redd.it/21cz6zvus0m31.png?width=569&format=png&auto=webp&s=883eb844e1061cddd585903549dde829098765c2
Quant Network community member David W also wrote an excellent piece on the benefits of tokenisation of assets in a lot more detail than what I will briefly cover here and strongly recommend you check it out.
The Tokenisation of assets is therefore inevitable, because it is a better way to record, exchange and monitor asset ownership for all parties involved. The amounts at stake represent many hundreds of trillions of US dollars

What are the benefits of a security token?

  • Lower Fees — having Smart Contracts and compliance programmed into the token itself removes the need for middlemen, reducing costs. Post Trade businesses such as clearing houses would also no longer be required further reducing costs.
  • 24/7 markets — Currently the major US stock markets trade between 9:30am and 3pm during weekdays only. Trading can be done 24/7 and globally whilst remaining compliant.
  • Fractional Ownership — This greatly increases liquidity for previously illiquid assets. Real estate, Artwork, even assets such as Oil Refineries are already in talks about being tokenised through Overledger. If you have an asset such as an oil refinery worth billions of dollars, then naturally this limits the market should you ever want to sell it. However with fractional ownership you could own a tiny percentage of it and receive profits from the oil refinery based upon the percentage you own, which exponentially increases the number ofpotential buyers, increasing liquidity.
  • Rapid Settlement — Currently it takes 3 working days to settle a securities trade, this can be reduced to minutes by having the asset and fiat represented on a blockchain and handled through smart contracts.
  • Automated compliance — Security tokens are programmable, and rules and regulations are hard-coded into the architecture of the token to ensure they always remain compliant. This means that they can be traded globally and still ensure they respect the relevant countries regulations that the participants are located in.
  • The benefits that a blockchain provide such as transparency, security, immutability, high availability. Regulators can also run a node and verify compliance in real time.

Security Token Issuance Platforms

Security token issuance platforms allow issuers to issue Security tokens that represent the security such as Shares in their company etc in return for capital. This is known as a Primary Market. Importantly it’s not just the issuance that they look after, it’s the whole life cycle of a digital security to ensure they remain continuously in compliance as they are traded etc. They also provide reporting to the issuer so they can see who owns the tokens and what dividends to pay out.
Securitize are one of the leading security tokens issuing platforms. They have created the DS Protocol, a blockchain agnostic protocol for security tokens which manages the whole lifecycle of a digital security, ensuring it remains continuously in compliance. They have issued a number of security tokens on the Ethereum network as well as recently working with IBM to tokenise the Corporate Debt Market (worth $82 Trillion). On the back of this they joined Hyperledger, an open source project which includes Enterprise blockchains such as Hyperledger Fabric which IBM is heavily involved with.
https://tokenpost.com/Quant-Network-Securitize-and-others-join-Hyperledger-blockchain-project-1544
They recently also became the first SEC-registered transfer agent, which means Securitize can now act as the official keeper of records about changes of ownership in securities.
There are many companies in this sector which are utilising various blockchains, Other examples include:
  • Harber — R Token protocol for Ethereum
  • Polymath — ST20 protocol for Ethereum
  • Blockstate — a security token issuance platform recently announced plans to migrate a number of ERC-20 tokens from the public Ethereum blockchain to the permissioned blockchain R3 Corda
  • Dusk — Uses the Dusk blockchain
  • Own — Uses the Own blockchain
And many more such as Nefund, Bankex, Capexmove, Swarm, Symbiont, Tokeny etc

https://preview.redd.it/vr6c7jdzs0m31.png?width=520&format=png&auto=webp&s=88431b27906099bb09f31ef1fdee0222dd96674f

Trading Venues

Whilst the issuance platforms above generally also include their own exchange where the token can be traded on, secondary markets such as those offered through traditional stock exchanges and Alternative Trading Systems provide significantly more liquidity.
Traditional Stock Exchanges have been very active in blockchain with some going through proof of concepts, to those like SIX SDX Digital Exchange which is due to launch later this year. They are using various blockchains and cover the full process from Issuance, Trading and Post Trade / Settlement services. I have briefly outlined which blockchain they are using / testing with along with source to read more about it below:
  • Switzerland’s Stock Exchange — SIX Digital Exchange issue, trading, settlement, custody — Corda — Source
  • Largest Stock Exchange in Germany — Deutsche Borse Franfurt Stock Exchange — Corda — Source and Source
  • South Korea’s Stock Exchange — Korea Exchange — Hyperledger Fabric — Source and Source
  • Japan’s Stock Exchange — Tokyo Stock Exchange — Hyperledger Fabric — Source which the consortium has now grown to 44 companies. Tokyo Stock Exchange are also testing JP Morgan’s Quorum for voting on the blockchain — Source
  • London Stock Exchange Group — Hyperledger Fabric — Source . They are also invested in Nivaura which utilises Ethereum — Source
  • Largest Stock Exchange in Europe — Euronext — Permissioned Ethereum via Liquidshare — Source as well as recently investing in Tokeny a blockchain based project based on public version of Ethereum — Source
  • Singapore Stock Exchange — Ethereum — Source

Post Trade — Central Security Depositories

Situated at the end of the post-trading process, CSDs are systemically important intermediaries. They thereby form a critical part of the securities market’s post-trade infrastructure, as they are where changes of securities ownership are ultimately registered.
CSDs play a special role both as a depository, involving the legal safekeeping and maintenance of securities in a ‘central depository’ on behalf of custodians (both in materialised or dematerialised form); as well as for the issuer, involving the issuance of further securities by issuers, and their onboarding onto CSDs’ platforms.
CSDs are also keeping a number of other important functions, including: dividend, interest, and principal processing; corporate actions including proxy voting; payment to transfer agents, and issuers involved in these processes; securities lending and borrowing; and, provide pledging of share and securities.
Blockchain technology will enable real-time settlement finality in the securities world. This could mean the end of a number of players in the post-trade area, such as central counterparty clearing houses (CCPs), custodians and others. Central Security Despositories (CSD) will still play an important role according to reports:
“CSDs could have an important role to play in a blockchain-based settlement system. As ‘custodians of the code, CSDs could exercise oversight of, and take responsibility for, the operation of the relevant blockchain protocol and any associated smart contracts.” Euroclear Report
Another group of 30 central securities depositories (CSDs) in Europe and Asia are researching possible ways to “join hands” in developing a new infrastructure to custody digital assets. The CSDs will attempt to figure out how to apply their experience in guarding stock certificates to security solutions for crypto assets.
“A new world of tokenized assets and blockchain is coming. It will probably disrupt our role as CSDs. The whole group decided we will be focusing on tokenized assets, not just blockchain but on real digital assets.”
You can read more about how blockchain will affect CSD’s here
Examples of CSD’s in blockchain
  • SIX Digital Exchange and Deutsche Borse are utilising Corda as explained in the trading venues section
  • DTCC the largest in the US process 1.7 Quadrillion US Dollars of securities every year and are planning on moving their Trade Information Warehouse to Axoni’s AXCore Blockchain (Based on permissioned version of Ethereum) later this year — Source
  • Canada CDS are using the Quartz blockchain from Indian IT Services Company Tata Consultancy Services — Source
  • Euroclear in collaboration with the European Investment Bank (EIB), Banco Santander, and EY are developing a blockchain solution — Source
  • French CSD’s too soon go live on Setl Blockchain — Source and Source
  • Russia’s National Settlement Depository is launching a blockchain project using D3ledger (based off Hyperledger) — Source

The Importance Of Interoperability

The evolution of DLT and the wide adoption across industries and across different market segments is resulting in many different ledgers networks, but the ultimate promise of DLT can only be realized when all ledger networks can seamlessly interoperate. — from the recent DTCC whitepaper with Accenture
Some challenges and constraints related to the market infrastructure ecosystem remain open and will need to be addressed in the future to sustain the development of DLT platforms for trading and the post-trade process. At this stage, the questions of interoperability and standardization across these DLT (probably permissioned) platforms remain open and we may see a list of platforms offering no scope for interconnection. This will prevent them from fulfilling the key “distribution” criterion of DLT. Another related challenge that may determine whether or not the technology is adopted is the ability to provide Delivery versus Payment (DvP) settlement, in particular in central bank money. Nevertheless, it is worth mentioning that settlement can also be facilitated in commercial bank money. — https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/lu/Documents/technology/lu-token-assets-securities-tomorrow.pdf
It’s clear from the above that interoperability will be crucial in order to unlock the true potential of Distributed Ledger Technology. Issuance platforms will seek to interoperate with as many secondary exchanges as possible to provide maximum liquidity for issuers. Issuance platforms and secondary exchanges are each using a wide range of different blockchains that all need to interoperate as part of the trade process. CSD’s will also need to have interoperability between other CSD’s as well as to the secondary exchanges (again each using different blockchains).

Enter Quant Network’s Overledger

Quant Network’s blockchain operating system, Overledger, provides interoperability between any current and future distributed ledger technology as well as easily connecting Off Chain / Legacy networks as well as plans to connect directly to the Internet. Within 10 months it has proven it can provide interoperability with the full range of DLT technologies from all the leading Enterprise Permissioned blockchains such as Hyperledger, R3’s Corda, JP Morgan’s Quorum, permissioned variants of Ethereum and Ripple (XRPL) as well as the leading Public Permissionless blockchains / DAGs such as Bitcoin, Stellar, Ethereum, IOTA and EOS as well as the most recent blockchain to get added Binance Chain. All without imposing restrictions on connected chains, being Internet scalable and able to easily integrate into existing networks / infrastructure.
https://preview.redd.it/8p6hi942t0m31.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0536ea9981306feb8bd95788c66e9a5727a4d58
Overledger a blockchain operating system, will enable universal interoperability for regulatory-compliant security tokens and digital assets to be traded on AX ATS, a regulated secondary trading market. AX intends to integrate Overledger to help foster the evolution of traditional capital markets infrastructure to facilitate the mass implementation of regulated digital assets. With the increased market adoption of digital assets and banking “coins” such as JPMorgan Coin, AX and Quant Network are at the forefront to enable the transferability and movement of digital assets
https://www.quant.network/blog/redefining-wall-st-with-decentralised-capital-market-infrastructure-the-possibilities-of-quant-networks-overledger-technology-in-regulated-capital-markets
Overledger enables Universal Interoperability where digital assets can move across blockchains so that they can interact with smart contracts on different blockchains. It does this by locking the asset on one blockchain and then representing it on another blockchain either by creating a representing token or representing it via metadata. This will enable all of these different parties such as Issuance platforms, Exchanges, CSD’s, traders etc to move the digital asset from their respective blockchain onto AX Trading’s platform for secure, immediate and immutable trading to take place. Potentially it would even allow Digital Assets / Securities to settled on a public permissionless blockchain such as the recently connected Binance Chain in a completely safe, secure and compliant way.
https://preview.redd.it/a3o9qxq5t0m31.png?width=443&format=png&auto=webp&s=78d7a7e7d47213bbb354336ba9d5ad92c1c2254a
Regulators would be able to run a node and view transactions in real time ensuring that compliance is being kept. Potentially they could also benefit from using Quant Networks Multichain Search capability http://search.quant.network/ to be able to fully track assets as they move across blockchains.
George O’Krepkie, AX CEO said: “we look forward to partnering with Quant. Their technology will allow our blockchain agnostic security token exchange to communicate seamlessly with issuers, traders, investors, and regulators across different blockchain protocols. This is a key technological breakthrough that will help us bring the benefits of security tokens to Main Street and Wall Street.”

Securrency

AX Trading have also partnered with Securrency (who have previously tokenised over $260 million in real estate assets). Securrency provide a protocol that enables security tokens to remain in compliance regardless of what blockchain the token is on. Due to the layered approach that Overledger has adopted from the learnings of TCP/IP, this protocol can be easily integrated on top of Overledger to enable security tokens to move across blockchains as well as ensuring they remain in compliance with regulations programmed into the token.
https://youtu.be/vSQ2fu9iZGs

Delivery vs Payment (DvP)

A DvP transaction involves the settlement of two linked obligations, namely the delivery of securities and the payment of cash. DvP avoids counterparties being exposed to principal risk, i.e. the risk that the seller of securities could deliver but would not receive payment or that the buyer of securities could make payment but would not receive delivery. Following this requirement, a DvP securities settlement mechanism has to ensure that the delivery of securities and the payment of cash are linked in a way where one leg (obligation) of the securities trade is conditioned to the final settlement of the other leg (obligation) of the trade. Thereby final settlement is defined as “the irrevocable and unconditional transfer of an asset or financial instrument, or the discharge of an obligation by the FMI or its participants in accordance with the terms of the underlying contract”. — STELLA — a joint research project of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan
We have seen how Overledger can provide interoperability for the securities to move across Issuers platforms, integrate with Stock exchanges, Central Security Depositories and AX Trading. Now we need to be able to ensure that payment is guaranteed and in a way that offers immediate settlement which is irrevocable. To do this we need to represent FIAT on the blockchain so that it can interact with smart contracts and settle transactions on the blockchain.

J.P.Morgan’s Coin

J.P.Morgan is the largest bank in the United States and ranked by S&P Global as the sixth largest bank in the world by total assets as of 2018, to the amount of $2.535 trillion.
J.P. Morgan was the first U.S. bank to create and successfully test a digital coin representing a fiat currency. The JPM Coin is based on blockchain-based technology enabling the instantaneous transfer of payments between institutional clients.
With J.P.Morgan’s $2.6 trillion balance sheet, expertise in blockchain and global payments network, J.P. Morgan can seamlessly and securely transfer and settle money for clients around the world. J.P. Morgan are supervised by banking regulators in the United States and in the international jurisdictions in which it operates.

How does JPM Coin work?

A Buyer purchases JPM coins in advance which get represented on the Permissioned Quorum blockchain ($1 =1 JPM Coin). Quant Network’s Overledger could then provide interoperability to lock those tokens on Quorum and represent those onto another blockchain / AX Trading’s Network. By being able to represent securities and FIAT on the same blockchain (even though the underlying assets are on different blockchains) this provides instant finality / settlements to occur.
Once the seller receives the JPM coin in exchange for the securities they have sold they will be able to redeem them for USD. It also doesn’t necessarily mean that they have to have a JP Morgan account to redeem them, you could imagine in the future that the Bank instead redeems the JPM Coin and credits the users account. Similarly the buyer of the security token redeems the represented token and unlocks the security token on the original blockchain.
You can read more about JP Morgan’s Coin here as well as its use cases
J.P Morgan is betting that its first-mover status and large market share in corporate payments — it banks 80 percent of the companies in the Fortune 500 — will give its technology a good chance of getting adopted, even if other banks create their own coins. “Pretty much every big corporation is our client, and most of the major banks in the world are, too,” Farooq said. “Even if this was limited to JPM clients at the institutional level, it shouldn’t hold us back.”
Overledger enables different securities tokens / digital coins representing FIAT currencies to be brought together from the various permissioned / permissionless blockchains onto one platform where trading / settlement can take place. Overledger is the only technology that can do this today across the leading permissioned and permissionless blockchains as well as existing networks, all in a secure, scalable and easy to integrate way.
https://preview.redd.it/ngt7q7hdt0m31.png?width=738&format=png&auto=webp&s=60166bdc0fcdf72a502e3472a09de5ddb5e1eb69
Quant Network are working with AX Trading to bring more digital assets, securities and tokenised assets to their existing 800 institutional traders in an already live and connected FINRA and SEC regulated exchange. AX Trading is not just about trading securities but other digital assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum and potentially even Quant in the Future.
https://preview.redd.it/ibecorcft0m31.png?width=1286&format=png&auto=webp&s=94540cf49654e36a8155f424c2a4bdb5fd549558
This is a multi-trillion dollar market with huge global enterprises, traditional exchanges and global banks are all adopting DLT at a rapid pace and going into production at scale in a matter of months, examples include the NYSE Bakkt launching Bitcoin futures later this month, Swiss Stock Exchange ($1.6 Trillion market Cap) is due to launch their digital exchange running on Corda (SDX) by the end of the year. The DTCC are due to launch their Trade Information Warehouse which processes $10 Trillion of cleared and bilateral derivatives by the end of the year. JP Morgan who transfer $6 Trillion every day are due to launch their JPM coin at the end of year and AX Trading is due to offer their first digital asset by January 2020.
Quant Network’ Overledger enables the bridging of traditional finance infrastructure with the new decentralised finance infrastructure DeFi of the future, helping to redefine Wall Street and Capital Markets.
https://medium.com/@CryptoSeq/wall-street-2-0-17252ffd8919
submitted by xSeq22x to QuantNetwork [link] [comments]

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