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Elaborating on Datadash's 50k BTC Prediction: Why We Endorse the Call

As originally published via CoinLive
I am the Co-Founder at CoinLive. Prior to founding Coinlive.io, my area of expertise was inter-market analysis. I came across Datadash 50k BTC prediction this week, and I must take my hats off to what I believe is an excellent interpretation of the inter-connectivity of various markets.
At your own convenience, you can find a sample of Intermarket analysis I've written in the past before immersing myself into cryptos full-time.
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The purpose of this article is to dive deeper into the factors Datadash presents in his video and how they can help us draw certain conclusions about the potential flows of capital into crypto markets and the need that will exist for a BTC ETF.
Before I do so, as a brief explainer, let's touch on what exactly Intermarket analysis refers to:
Intermarket analysis is the global interconnectivity between equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, and any other asset class; Global markets are an ever-evolving discounting and constant valuation mechanism and by studying their interconnectivity, we are much better positioned to explain and elaborate on why certain moves occur, future directions and gain insights on potential misalignments that the market may not have picked up on yet or might be ignoring/manipulating.
While such interconnectivity has proven to be quite limiting when it comes to the value one can extract from analyzing traditional financial assets and the crypto market, Datadash has eloquently been able to build a hypothesis, which as an Intermarket analyst, I consider very valid, and that matches up my own views. Nicolas Merten constructs a scenario which leads him to believe that a Bitcoin ETF is coming. Let's explore this hypothesis.
I will attempt to summarize and provide further clarity on why the current events in traditional asset classes, as described by Datadash, will inevitably result in a Bitcoin ETF. Make no mistake, Datadash's call for Bitcoin at 50k by the end of 2018 will be well justified once a BTC ETF is approved. While the timing is the most challenging part t get right, the end result won't vary.
If one wishes to learn more about my personal views on why a BTC ETF is such a big deal, I encourage you to read my article from late March this year.
Don't Be Misled by Low Liquidity/Volume - Fundamentals Never Stronger
The first point Nicholas Merten makes is that despite depressed volume levels, the fundamentals are very sound. That, I must say, is a point I couldn't agree more. In fact, I recently wrote an article titled The Paradox: Bitcoin Keeps Selling as Intrinsic Value Set to Explode where I state "the latest developments in Bitcoin's technology makes it paradoxically an ever increasingly interesting investment proposition the cheaper it gets."
However, no article better defines where we stand in terms of fundamentals than the one I wrote back on May 15th titled Find Out Why Institutions Will Flood the Bitcoin Market, where I look at the ever-growing list of evidence that shows why a new type of investors, the institutional ones, looks set to enter the market in mass.
Nicholas believes that based on the supply of Bitcoin, the market capitalization can reach about $800b. He makes a case that with the fundamentals in bitcoin much stronger, it wouldn't be that hard to envision the market cap more than double from its most recent all-time high of more than $300b.
Interest Rates Set to Rise Further
First of all, one of the most immediate implications of higher rates is the increased difficulty to bear the costs by borrowers, which leads Nicholas to believe that banks the likes of Deutsche Bank will face a tough environment going forward. The CEO of the giant German lender has actually warned that second-quarter results would reflect a “revenue environment [that] remains challenging."
Nicholas refers to the historical chart of Eurodollar LIBOR rates as illustrated below to strengthen the case that interest rates are set to follow an upward trajectory in the years to come as Central Banks continue to normalize monetary policies after a decade since the global financial crisis. I'd say, that is a correct assumption, although one must take into account the Italian crisis to be aware that a delay in higher European rates is a real possibility now.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/947/content_2018-05-30_1100.png)
Let's look at the following combinations: Fed Fund Rate Contract (green), German 2-year bond yields (black) and Italy's 10-year bond yield (blue) to help us clarify what's the outlook for interest rates both in Europe and the United States in the foreseeable future. The chart suggests that while the Federal Reserve remains on track to keep increasing interest rates at a gradual pace, there has been a sudden change in the outlook for European rates in the short-end of the curve.
While the European Central Bank is no longer endorsing proactive policies as part of its long-standing QE narrative, President Mario Draghi is still not ready to communicate an exit strategy to its unconventional stimulus program due to protectionism threats in the euro-area, with Italy the latest nightmare episode.
Until such major step is taken in the form of a formal QE conclusion, interest rates in the European Union will remain depressed; the latest drastic spike in Italy's benchmark bond yield to default levels is pre-emptive of lower rates for longer, an environment that on one hand may benefit the likes of Deutsche Bank on lower borrowing costs, but on the other hand, sets in motion a bigger headache as risk aversion is set to dominate financial markets, which leads to worse financial consequences such as loss of confidence and hence in equity valuations.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/948/content_2018-05-30_1113.png)
Deutsche Bank - End of the Road?
Nicholas argues that as part of the re-restructuring process in Deutsche Bank, they will be facing a much more challenging environment as lending becomes more difficult on higher interest rates. At CoinLive, we still believe this to be a logical scenario to expect, even if a delay happens as the ECB tries to deal with the Italian political crisis which once again raises the question of whether or not Italy should be part of the EU. Reference to an article by Zerohedge is given, where it states:
"One day after the WSJ reported that the biggest German bank is set to "decimate" its workforce, firing 10,000 workers or one in ten, this morning Deutsche Bank confirmed plans to cut thousands of jobs as part of new CEO Christian Sewing's restructuring and cost-cutting effort. The German bank said its headcount would fall “well below” 90,000, from just over 97,000. But the biggest gut punch to employee morale is that the bank would reduce headcount in its equities sales and trading business by about 25%."
There is an undeniably ongoing phenomenon of a migration in job positions from traditional financial markets into blockchain, which as we have reported in the past, it appears to be a logical and rational step to be taken, especially in light of the new revenue streams the blockchain sector has to offer. Proof of that is the fact that Binance, a crypto exchange with around 200 employees and less than 1 year of operations has overcome Deutsche Bank, in total profits. What this communicates is that the opportunities to grow an institution’s revenue stream are formidable once they decide to integrate cryptocurrencies into their business models.
One can find an illustration of Deutsche Bank's free-fall in prices below:
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/946/content_2018-05-30_1052.png)
Nicholas takes notes of a chart in which one can clearly notice a worrying trend for Italian debt. "Just about every other major investor type has become a net seller (to the ECB) or a non-buyer of BTPs over the last couple of years. Said differently, for well over a year, the only marginal buyer of Italian bonds has been the ECB!", the team of Economists at Citi explained. One can find the article via ZeroHedge here.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/953/content_2018-05-30_1451.png)
Equities & Housing to Suffer the Consequences
Nicholas notes that trillions of dollars need to exit these artificially-inflated equity markets. He even mentions a legendary investor such as George Soros, who has recently warned that the world could be on the brink of another devastating financial crisis, on lingering debt concerns in Europe and a strengthening US dollar, as a destabilizing factor for both the US's emerging- and developed-market rivals.
Ray Dalio, another legend in the investing world and Founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, "has ramped up its short positions in European equities in recent weeks, bringing their total value to an estimated $22 billion", MarketWatch reports.
Nicholas extracts a chart by John Del Vecchio at lmtr.com where it illustrates the ratio between stocks and commodities at the lowest in over 50 years.
As the author states:
"I like to look for extremes in the markets. Extremes often pinpoint areas where returns can be higher and risk lower than in other time periods. Take the relationship between commodities and stocks. The chart below shows that commodities haven not been cheaper than stocks in a generation. We often hear this time it is different” to justify what’s going on in the world. But, one thing that never changes is human nature. People push markets to extremes. Then they revert. "
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/954/content_2018-05-30_1459.png)
Bitcoin ETF the Holy Grail for a Cyclical Multi-Year Bull Run
It is precisely from this last chart above that leads Nicholas to believe we are on the verge of a resurgence in commodity prices. Not only that but amid the need of all this capital to exit stocks and to a certain extent risky bonds (Italian), a new commodity-based digital currency ETF based on Bitcoin will emerge in 2018.
The author of Datadash highlights the consideration to launching a Bitcoin ETF by the SEC. At CoinLive, our reporting of the subject can be found below:
"Back in April, it was reported that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has put back on the table two Bitcoin ETF proposals, according to public documents. The agency is under formal proceedings to approve a rule change that would allow NYSE Arca to list two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) proposed by fund provider ProShares. The introduction of an ETF would make Bitcoin available to a much wider share of market participants, with the ability to directly buy the asset at the click of a button, essentially simplifying the current complexity that involves having to deal with all the cumbersome steps currently in place."
Nicholas refers to the support the Bitcoin ETF has been receiving by the Cboe president Chris Concannon, which is a major positive development. CoinLive reported on the story back in late March, noting that "a Bitcoin ETF will without a doubt open the floodgates to an enormous tsunami of fresh capital entering the space, which based on the latest hints by Concannon, the willingness to keep pushing for it remains unabated as the evolution of digital assets keeps its course."
It has been for quite some time CoinLive's conviction, now supported by no other than Nicholas Merten from Datadash, that over the next 6 months, markets will start factoring in the event of the year, that is, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF that will serve as a alternative vehicle to accommodate the massive flows of capital leaving some of the traditional asset classes. As Nicholas suggests, the SEC will have little choice but to provide alternative investments.
Bitcoin as a Hedge to Lower Portfolios' Volatility
Last but not least, crypto assets such as Bitcoin and the likes have an almost non-existent correlation to other traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities, which makes for a very attractive and broadly-applicable diversification strategy for the professional money as it reduces one’s portfolio volatility. The moment a Bitcoin ETF is confirmed, expect the non-correlation element of Bitcoin as a major driving force to attract further capital.
Anyone Can Be Wrong Datadash, But You Won't be Wrong Alone
Having analyzed the hypothesis by Nicholas Merten, at CoinLive we believe that the conclusion reached, that is, the creation of a Bitcoin ETF that will provide shelter to a tsunami of capital motivated by the diversification and store of value appeal of Bitcoin, is the next logical step. As per the timing of it, we also anticipate, as Nicholas notes, that it will most likely be subject to the price action in traditional assets. Should equities and credit markets hold steady, it may result in a potential delay, whereas disruption in the capital market may see the need for a BTC ETF accelerate. Either scenario, we will conclude with a quote we wrote back in March.
"It appears as though an ETF on Bitcoin is moving from a state of "If" to "When."
Datadash is certainly not alone on his 50k call. BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes appears to think along the same line.
On behalf of the CoinLive Team, we want to thank Nicholas Merten at Datadash for such enlightening insights.
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Daily analysis of cryptocurrencies 20191128(Market index 32 — Fear state)

Daily analysis of cryptocurrencies 20191128(Market index 32 — Fear state)

https://preview.redd.it/wfqjaht1zl141.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0c7eadb39a877fcab6f3e510108e216ad8561c38

ECB Official Says Digital Currency Could Be An Alternative To CashSpeaking at a joint conference held by the European Central Bank and the National Bank of Belgium, outgoing executive board member Benoît Cœuré said a digital currency could ensure that citizens remain able to use central bank money even if cash is eventually no longer used.He added, “A digital currency of this sort could take a variety of forms, the benefits and costs of which the ECB and other central banks are currently investigating, being mindful of their broader consequences on financial intermediation.” However, he advocated for private companies to continue their own work in the space.“But potential central bank initiatives should not discourage or crowd out private market-led solutions for fast and efficient retail payments in the euro area,” he said.
Security Firm: All UPbit Stolen Crypto Assets Transferred, First-Phase Transfers Adopted To Disturb MonitoringMonitored by Beijing-based blockchain security firm Chainsguard, at 07:09 UTC on Nov 28, the stolen assets of UPbit were transferred to three addresses in the multistep amounts of 10, 1,000, 10,000 and 100,000, respectively. At 08:55, the last transfer that involves 109,270.16 ETH was finished. In the course of transfers, 100 ETH from each address, totaled 300 ETH, flowed into the address which first received the stolen fund. In the meantime, the attacker is carrying out the transfer test by moving fractional coins.Judging from the behavior, the attacker is implementing the first phase of transfers to perturb the monitoring. Furthermore, a good deal of ETH-based fractional amounts, as well as multiple ERC20 tokens, were sent to the address held by the attacker, together contributing to interfering the trace of lost assets.
Robinhood Withdraws Bank Charter ApplicationRobinhood is pulling its bank charter application with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), highlighting the difficulties that tech startups experience when they try to enter the banking industry.A Robinhood spokesperson told CNBC that the withdrawal was voluntary. “Robinhood will continue to focus on increasing participation in the financial system and challenging the industry to better serve everyone,” the spokesperson said. “We appreciate the efforts and collaboration of all the parties we worked with throughout this process.”

Yesterday, we saw a nice recovery wave in bitcoin above the $7,200 resistance against the US Dollar. However, BTC price struggled to climb above the $7,375 and $7,400 resistance levels.
Later, there was a minor downside correction, but the price remains well bid above the $7,000 level. As a result, there was a fresh increase above the $7,200 resistance.
Moreover, the price surpassed yesterday’s bullish flag resistance at $7,100 on the hourly chart. It opened the doors for an upside break above the key $7,375 and $7,400 resistance levels.
Bitcoin price even rallied above the $7,500 resistance and traded close to the next key resistance near $7,700 (as pointed out in the weekly forecast). A high was formed near $7,676 and the price is currently correcting lower.
Review previous articles: https://medium.com/@to.liuwen

Encrypted project calendar(November 28, 2019)

Horizen (ZEN): 28 November 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.IOTA (MIOTA): 28 November 2019 London Meetup “Healthcare Professional Interest Network: Is AI the end of Healthcare?” meetup in London from 18:30–21:30 (GMT).Aeternity (AE): 28 November 2019 Vienna Workshop “Come learn more about AE’s functional language Sophia and layer-1 oracles and state channels.”Honest (HNST) and 1 other; 28 November 2019 Telegram AMA “Book your date for Honest Mining AMA with @vexanium, November 28th, 2019 on Honest Mining Telegram Group and Vexanium Telegram Group.”Waves (WAVES); 28 November 2019 AMA with Sasha Ivanov “This Thursday Nov 28 we’re hosting a live-streamed AMA with Sasha Ivanov to discuss where Waves stands and where we’re heading in 2020.”

Encrypted project calendar(November 29, 2019)

Zenon (ZNN): 29 November 2019 Awareness Fund Payout “Distribution of the fund takes place every Friday until Pillars Lock-in Phase is completed.”Tael (WABI); 29 November 2019 Founders AMA “Three days to go until our Founders #AMA, this Friday, hosted by @binance.”

Encrypted project calendar(November 30, 2019)

Ethos (ETHOS): 30 November 2019 (or earlier) Rebranding “In November, we unveil the broker token, a dynamic utility token to power our commission-free crypto trading and broker platform, Voyager.”Digitex Futures (DGTX): 30 November 2019 Public Testnet Launch “…We can expect to see the world’s first zero-commission futures trading platform live on the Ethereum public testnet from 30th November.”Monero (XMR): 30 November 2019 Protocol Upgrade “Preliminary information thread regarding the scheduled protocol upgrade of November 30.”Chiliz (CHZ): 30 November 2019 (or earlier) Fiat to CHZ Exchanges “We will add another two fiat to $CHZ exchanges in November…”Skrumble Network (SKM): 30 November 2019 (or earlier) P2P & Group Calling “P2P & Group Video Calling,” during November 2019.Aergo (AERGO): 30 November 2019 (or earlier) Mainnet 2.0 Upgrade Mainnet 2.0 Protocol update by end of November.Akropolis (AKRO): 30 November 2019 (or earlier) Beta Release “All functionality has been deployed to mainnet.”Nash Exchange (NEX): 30 November 2019 (or earlier) Mobile Strategy Phase 2 “Phase 2 of our mobile strategy will be live soon with our wallet and portfolio app hitting stores in November!”Akropolis (AKRO): 30 November 2019 (or earlier) Beta Release “All functionality has been deployed to mainnet.”Pakcoin (PAK): 30 November 2019 Staking Mobile App Android app for staklet is going to be launched on November 30th.

Encrypted project calendar(December 1, 2019)

Auxilium (AUX): 01 December 2019 AUX Interest Distribution Monthly interest distribution by Auxilium Interest Distribution Platform for coinholders. Also supports charity.I/O Coin (IOC): 01 December 2019 Pos Reward Halving IOC block reward halving is happening on December 1st 2019.ABBC Coin (ABBC) 01 December 2019 Migration Requests Start “Migration requests from the #AladdinPro Wallet will be accepted starting on December 1, 2019.”

Encrypted project calendar(December 2, 2019)

Bitcoin (BTC): 02 December 2019 CME Futures BTCX19 Bitcoin Futures Contract (BTCX19) settles on December 02, 2019.Waves (WAVES): 02 December 2019 Waves Exchange Launch “As of November 18, users will be able to import their accounts and seed phrases, and, on December 2, the new exchange will be launched.”BZLCOIN (BZL): 02 December 2019 New Website New website and pre-launch “Patron”.Decentraland (MANA): 02 December 2019 Creator Contest “Announcing the Creator Contest, from Dec 2–15. Submit your most creative interactive scenes for a share of $50k USD worth of prizes up.”Bitcoin (BTC); 02 December 2019 CME Futures BTCX19 Bitcoin Futures Contract (BTCX19) settles on December 02, 2019.

Encrypted project calendar(December 3, 2019)

Aeternity (AE): 03 December 2019 Sofia, Bulgaria Meetup “Come hear @noyyy and @em introducing the project, followed by talks by Karol Skočik, Juraj Hlista, and Stephan Verbücheln.”Quant (QNT) 03 December 2019 QuantX London Conference “QuantX is a half-day event being curated by Quant Network with an audience of 100 industry professionals from across the fintech…”

Encrypted project calendar(December 4, 2019)

Aeternity (AE) 04 December 2019 Sofia Hackathon “The next aeternity blockchain hackathon will be held in Sofia, Bulgaria, on December 4th, 2019!”

Encrypted project calendar(December 5, 2019)

***OKB (OKB):***05 December 2019 OKEx Cryptour Kyiv Ukr “Join us in Kyiv as we journey through Ukraine for our OKEx Cryptour!”Horizen (ZEN) 05 December 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 4:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.

Encrypted project calendar(December 6, 2019)

TenX (PAY): 06 December 2019 COMIT Hackathon “The #hackathon will be held over the weekend of 6–8 Dec at the TenX HQ in Singapore.”Noah Coin (NOAH) 06 December 2019 Japan Roadshow — Sendai “As you know, we are organizing the trip to the cities of Japan in December.”

Encrypted project calendar(December 7, 2019)

Storm (STORM): 07 December 2019 Loyalty Program Registration for our fourth and last loyalty program will end on December 7th!MediBloc [ERC20] (MEDX): 07 December 2019 Token Swap Deadline “Please submit your swap before 7th of December 23:59(UTC+9).”OKB (OKB); 07 December 2019 OKEx Talks 2019 Calabar “Join us on 7 Dec for our first OKExTalks in Calabar, where we will be discussing ‘Digital Assets and Tokenization’.”Dash (DASH); 07 December 2019 Open House “.. Dash Core Group will be hosting the Dash Evolution Open House on Dec 7th… in Scottsdale, AZ, from 1pm to 5pm MST.”Noah Coin (NOAH); 07 December 2019 Japan Roadshow — Tokyo “As you know, we are organizing the trip to the cities of Japan in December.”

Encrypted project calendar(December 8, 2019)

Noah Coin (NOAH) 08 December 2019 Japan Roadshow — Nagoya “As you know, we are organizing the trip to the cities of Japan in December.”

Encrypted project calendar(December 10, 2019)

OKB (OKB) 10 December 2019 OKEx Talks — Rotterdam “Join us on 10 Dec to explore “Decentralized Finance” & the benefits & opportunities it presents.”.Newscrypto.io (NWC) 10 December 2019 (or earlier) Platform Redesign Updates: Brand new Landing page, New Trading Tools and Updated School Program.IOTA (MIOTA) 10 December 2019 Karlsruhe Meetup “Come learn about the IOTA technology! Dec 10 at 6PM CEST.”OKB (OKB) 10 December 2019 OKEx Talks — Rotterdam “Join us on 10 Dec to explore “Decentralized Finance” & the benefits & opportunities it presents.”.Newscrypto.io (NWC) 10 December 2019 (or earlier) Platform Redesign Updates: Brand new Landing page, New Trading Tools and Updated School Program.

Encrypted project calendar(December 11, 2019)

Waves (WAVES) 11 December 2019 Annual Meetup ‘See you in Berlin on December 11, 2019!”Cindicator (CND) 11 December 2019 Event for CND Ecosystem “New horizons of the CND ecosystem,” with “More details to be released” at 14:00 UTC.IOTA (MIOTA) 11 December 2019 Berlin Meetup “Join us for the “2019 recap & 2020 outlook” MeetUp, organized by IOTA & @iotashop.”Cosmos (ATOM) 11 December 2019 Cosmos Hub 3 Chain “Cosmonauts, buckle up & get ready for the hub upgrade to the Cosmos Hub 3 chain. A new proposed date is set for Dec 11 at…” .
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